Ukrainian Grain Can Be Exported: How to Lift the Black Sea Blockade

The Black Sea currently stands under a double blockade for Ukraine. Russia has blocked movement to our ports with missiles and drones. Ships are afraid to proceed because they are likely to be struck regardless of their flag. Passage through the Bosporus and Dardanelles is blocked by Turkey.

The Turks are so concerned about shipping safety that they do not permit passage of ships to Ukrainian (and Russian) ports. Igor Lutsenko reports this.

Ukraine was not prepared for maritime blockades.

The sultanate is playing its game. And what about us?

Over four years, we have unfortunately not made much effort to prepare for a blockade of the sea. In that time one could have modernized existing ones and even completed new railway routes to have more reserve capacity for exports.

Ukraine is already suffering large economic losses. There is nothing to export grain and to import ore. Several metallurgical and mining plants have already ceased.

Suppose the current government officials are incapable and dull. But should the wealthy have some sense in their heads? For example, in Rinat Akhmetov, who during these years was an active investor in real estate on the Azure Coast.

Domestic entrepreneurs, possessing enormous resources, have sat for years and watched Russia gradually build up its missile and drone power. In recent months it has become obvious—the sea will be closed to us. Did they hope that the heroism of the Ukrainian army and miraculous aid from allies would solve all their problems?

Ships are burning in the Odessa harbor area, the straits are closed. Thousands of trucks are stuck at the borders. There are not enough roads, not enough railways. Such is the “surprise.”

How to unblock the Black Sea?

I do not see any other way than to block the Baltic Sea for Moscow.

First, we have a basis. All Ukrainian sea routes are blocked, and we have a full moral right to respond to the aggressor symmetrically. Second, there is a technical possibility. We regularly strike at the Caspian flotilla of the Russians, flying long distances over Russian territory and bypassing air defense echelons. The Baltic Sea is at roughly the same distance from Ukraine as the Caspian.

According to some calculations, restricting Russia’s oil and gas revenues (more than 70% of which come from exports through the Baltic and Black Seas) could triple the budget deficit to 5 – 6% of GDP, create a current account balance of payments gap exceeding 100 billion dollars (roughly another 5–6% of GDP), and lead to a decrease in Russia’s GDP by 9–10% in real terms.

And this is only the energy sector; there is also container and bulk export and import for Russia through these routes.

A closed Black Sea as it is now is more advantageous for Russia than for Ukraine. Closing the Baltic would reverse this—Russia would suffer far more than we would. Action is needed.