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As of mid-August the official dollar rate remains below 45 UAH. However, due to falling exports and the global energy crisis, curbing the hryvnia’s depreciation is becoming increasingly difficult. Financial experts spoke to Delo.ua in comments about what to expect from the currency market this month.
Will the dollar reach 45 UAH?
In the second quarter Ukraine’s trade deficit reached $15,9 billion, and after seven months the negative trade balance grew almost one and a half times—from $22,7 billion in 2025 year to $34 billion in 2026. One of the factors was a rise in imports and budget expenditures, increasing demand for foreign currency, explained former Ukrainian economy minister Bohdan Danilishy n. Nevertheless, the expert does not expect a sharp hryvnia devaluation. His base forecast for August is 44,5-45,5 UAH per dollar.
Why the hryvnia remains relatively stable for now.
The National Bank continues currency interventions to smooth out imbalances between demand and supply of currency. For the first half of 2026 year, the regulator sold $23,35 billion on the interbank market from international reserves. In autumn the need for such interventions may rise due to seasonal increases in import of energy carriers, fuel, and preparations for the heating season. According to Bohdan Danilishin, during this period the NBU may spend $3-5 billion per month on currency interventions, and in certain periods even more. At the same time, in his view, the regulator’s strategy is not to hold the exchange rate at a specific level, but to prevent sharp currency fluctuations so the market gradually adapts to economic conditions.
Another risk to the currency market are Russian attacks on port infrastructure, which reduce currency inflows from exports. According to the NBU, due to restrictions on grain and iron ore exports Ukraine may miss out on about $2,5 billion in foreign exchange earnings. However, a rapid collapse of the exchange rate is not forecast. The hryvnia’s stability will continue to be ensured by external financing: for the year 2026 a planned $54 billion in budget support and $33 billion for defense needs from international partners, Danilishin says.
Despite attacks on business and infrastructure, the cash market remains calm, and the gap between official and retail rates is minimal. To encourage Ukrainians to hold money in the national currency, the National Bank raised the policy rate to 15,5% and does not rule out further increases to 16%. This should make hryvnia-denominated deposits and government bonds more attractive.
Why Ukrainians are buying euros more than dollars.
For six months in a row, starting in February, net demand from households for cash euros has consistently outpaced demand for dollars, said financial analyst Andriy Shevchishin. In July 2026, Ukrainians bought cash dollars worth $232,5 million, up by 38,8% from June. At the same time net euro purchases amounted to $266,3 million. Although this indicator fell by 20,8% month‑over‑month, the volume of euro currency purchased still exceeded that of dollars. Overall for the first seven months of the current year interest in euros rose by 12,7% (to $2,08 billion), while demand for dollars fell by 9,3%.
Overall for seven months, 2026 year Ukrainians bought euros for more than $2 billion in equivalent (up 12,7% year‑on‑year), while dollars were for $1,83 billion (down 9,3%). The euro’s share in total cash operations rose to 27%. The expert explains this trend by needs of refugees, tourists, and the general cash flow from EU countries. The euro’s exchange rate is influenced not only by Ukrainian demand. The European currency is strengthening on the world market against the dollar. Since the EU is Ukraine’s main trading partner, this gradually affects the cost of imported goods.
At the same time, unprecedented volumes of exchange-rate support are seen on the interbank level. The analyst notes that since the beginning of summer the NBU has entered the market with $10,9 billion in currency interventions. For perspective, this is more than the NBU spent to support the hryvnia cumulatively over nearly seven years—from 2015 to October 2021 year. Such record figures vividly demonstrate the huge imbalance between Ukrainian exports and imports in wartime.
For a business that works with European partners, choosing reserve currencies can be one way to reduce currency risks.
"The hryvnia’s exchange rate to the dollar depends largely on the NBU’s policy, while the euro and dollar ratio is formed on the world currency market. If a company has future euro-denominated payments, it is logical to form part of its currency reserves in this currency. This will help reduce the risk of exchange-rate losses," says Bohdan Danilishin.
As a reminder, direct losses from one large-scale strike on port infrastructure can reach $20-30 million. At the same time, more serious consequences for the economy are associated with reduced export opportunities via sea routes, decreased foreign currency inflow, and higher export costs for Ukrainian producers.
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