Will Ukraine Surpass the Developers of Patriot: Analysts Explain What Is Slowing Licenses

Getty Images Causes of delays in transferring missile manufacturing licenses for Patriot systems to Ukraine, which the media called, are unlikely to exist in reality, according to analysts at Defense Express.

They stressed that the first reason is the possibility of transferring technologies to other countries. However, both missile manufacturers, Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, have worked with partners from different countries for years, starting with the establishment of non-secret processes and, in that time, "polished all control mechanisms and reduced potential risks." In particular, production processes can be controlled through joint ventures or by opening overseas subsidiaries.

For example, drawing on cooperation with Japan, it is noted that Lockheed Martin did not transfer the technology for the entire production, assembling the key node—the guidance head of the missile—at a U.S. plant.

"In the hands of American companies lies the entire strategy of establishing cooperation, deciding what, when, and how to transfer, as well as control over timelines for creating new production facilities through organization and oversight, as well as final certification," the article explains, which is why collaboration with Ukraine does not add a threat of intellectual property loss for the interceptor developers.

The second reason cited by the media that could slow technology transfer is that Ukraine might improve, accelerate, or cheapen production, which would disadvantage the developers. The authors called it illogical, since Ukraine "even after obtaining the right to produce components and assemble missiles will not be able to export them, except by U.S. decision." Moreover, American companies know how to "turn differences in production cost across countries into their own profits."

"But the possibility for Ukraine to upgrade these missiles independently is very complementary for the Ukrainian defense-industrial complex. At the same time, it is unlikely that these works can be carried out other than in close cooperation with the American side, which retains all know-how regarding the key components," the analysts added.

It is recalled that the project of obtaining licenses and manufacturing missiles for Patriot will yield results only after several years. But globally the project will remain relevant and needed for decades.

The authors conclude that Ukraine "should not count on obtaining the ability to fully manufacture the entire missile," because such practices do not exist in the United States. Most likely, cooperation with the Ukrainian defense-industrial complex will begin with simple components, followed by moving on to more complex tasks if successful.

Licenses to manufacture missiles for Patriot - latest news.

Recall that, according to the media, American defense companies fear that Ukraine after obtaining licenses for Patriot could upgrade missile production and manufacture them faster and cheaper. Thus, journalists emphasized, developers feared competition.

Currently Ukraine and the United States have agreed on a monthly supply of Patriot missiles. However, these supplies will still be insufficient to adequately defend Ukraine from Russian attacks, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Creation of other ballistic interceptor missiles - what is known.

We add that meanwhile the United States and Ukraine have joined forces to modernize old missiles for the S-300 air defense system or to create a new variant with improved characteristics, according to retired Colonel Robert Hamilton.

European partners are also working on developing the Freyja air defense system. Currently there is no information whether U.S. engineers are involved in this project. However, it is possible that Ukrainians are pursuing two projects simultaneously, and with U.S. help plan to upgrade missiles for Soviet-era C-300 systems, creating ballistic interceptors.