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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
The population of Ukraine since independence has decreased by about 45% — from around 52 million to approximately 29 million people in the territories controlled by Kyiv. This is stated in a material by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).
According to the publication, about 6-7 million Ukrainians are currently abroad. At the same time, the share of those who plan to return to Ukraine has for the first time fallen below 50%.
The situation is further worsened by prolonged migration. It is estimated that Ukraine loses about 100–150 thousand people every month due to citizens leaving abroad and not returning. Just in 2025 year, the number of those who left Ukraine exceeded those who returned by 303 thousand people.
One of the key factors of the demographic crisis is the decline in birth rate. According to the data cited in the material, the fertility rate dropped to a record 0,9 children per woman, while mortality almost triples the birth rate.
If current trends persist, by 2100 the population of Ukraine could fall to approximately 15,3 million people. This forecast is given by the United Nations.
War increases the deficit of people
The full-scale war has created additional pressure on the demographic situation and the labor market. According to RFE/RL, mobilization, outward migration, as well as cases of desertion and evasion from conscription, exacerbate the problem with human resources.
At the same time, the need for Ukraine to strengthen the defense forces also affects the civilian economy. In many sectors, a shortage of workers has emerged, and in some settlements men of draft age have become a rarity.
“The shortage of people with technical skills and education is catastrophic,” said Ukrainian economist Oleh Penzin.
According to data from the State Employment Center, the greatest shortage of workers is in education, land transport, metal products manufacturing, and furniture, as well as in the energy sector.
The agricultural sector also faces difficulties. According to Oleh Khomenko, director of the Ukrainian Agricultural Business Club, due to mobilization tractor operators and machine operators are leaving civilian professions, leading to a shortage of qualified personnel.
In his assessment, today the shortage of such workers in agriculture reaches 15%.
Will Ukrainians return from abroad
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, millions of Ukrainians have left the country. According to the material, about 6–7 million Ukrainian citizens are abroad, among whom a significant portion are women.
Economists consider the return of a portion of these people to be one of the important factors for restoring the Ukrainian economy after the war.
“If we manage to bring back at least 40 percent of them, it will be a huge help for the economy,” said Penzin.
The Ukrainian authorities and business are already seeking ways to stimulate the return of citizens. In European countries with large Ukrainian communities, Unity Hubs are being established to help Ukrainians abroad with consultations, integration, and potentially voluntary repatriation.
However, some of the Ukrainians who left after the start of the full-scale war do not plan to return. Among the reasons are building a life abroad, education, work, and lack of housing or work in Ukraine.
Ukraine can attract foreign workers
Because of the shortage of skilled labor, Ukrainian companies have already started attracting foreign workers. In particular, enterprises in Western Ukraine hire citizens of other countries to work in manufacturing.
For example, the furniture company Lamella from the Zakarpattia region recruited workers from Bangladesh. Company representatives explain this by a shortage of people for positions that require significant physical effort.
Former Minister of Economy Tymofiy Milovanov previously stated that after the war Ukraine might need up to 10 million migrants for positive changes in the economy. Primarily this refers to workers in skilled trades.
At the same time, experts warn against final forecasts about Ukraine’s future migrant needs, since demographic and economic conditions will largely depend on the duration of the war and the terms of its resolution.
Recall that in 2025 year in Ukraine there were 495,1 thousand deaths. At the same time, only 176,1 thousand births occurred.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Населення України скоротилося до 29 млн: мільйони людей виїхали за кордон". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: NARDEP 24.
