Russia May Launch an Offensive in Northern Ukraine in February – HUR – Center for Journalistic Investigations

The Russian Federation theoretically could try to start an offensive on the northern part of Ukraine this year, but currently conditions for such an operation do not exist. The opportunity for this could arise thanks to mobilization after the parliamentary elections in the Russian Federation in September.

This was announced by the deputy head of the Ukrainian military intelligence directorate (HUR MO), Major General Vadym Skibitsky, in an interview with RBK-Ukraine.

According to Skibitsky, the possibility of a new offensive operation by Russia will primarily depend on carrying out mobilization. Its signs can be detected in advance by intelligence, because concealing large-scale mobilization measures under modern conditions is practically impossible.

The HUR also takes into account the prior experience of the Russian army. Partial mobilization in Russia began in the second half of October 2022 year, and by December a portion of the units prepared had appeared at the front. The main forces capable of fully taking part in fighting were ready by January 2023 year.

Skibitsky noted that in the event of a new mobilization wave being announced, Russia theoretically could form a powerful strike group closer to February of the following year.

“That is, if the aggressor conducts a new mobilization wave this year, they may prepare a powerful strike group closer to February, at the beginning of the next year. And this does not exclude the possibility that the Russian command may stage such an operation in February, given Putin’s fondness for symbolic dates,” said the major general.

At the same time, he emphasized that at present intelligence does not record the necessary troops or other signs of Russia’s readiness to advance on the Kyiv or Chernihiv regions.