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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
REUTERS: The Kremlin is escalating threats toward the West and they should be taken seriously. However, do not overstate Moscow’s capabilities. This is the view expressed by Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a British military analyst, a retired colonel, in a column for The Telegraph.
In particular, he notes the Russians’ anger that British drones have begun attacking territory inside the Russian Federation. However, as the officer notes, Western officials have already repeatedly supplied Ukraine with a range of weapons. And therefore nothing new is happening from their side. Instead, it is noticeable that something new is happening on the Russian side, as pressure on the Russian leadership intensifies.
Bretton-Gordon notes that for Putin it is becoming harder to admit that his so-called 'special military operation' has suffered a serious failure. It is also hard for him to explain how Ukraine, which they planned to seize in a matter of weeks, is now striking deep into Russian territory. However, the biggest problem for Putin is that the war is beginning to reveal the limits of Russian military power.
The upcoming mobilization in the Russian Federation, which the expert believes will occur 'almost certainly,' will only increase internal tension. And if among ethnic Russians the number of casualties begins to rise, it could lead relatives of the dead to march to Moscow, as it was during the Soviet-Afghan war in the 1980 years. And although Putin states that the war in Ukraine is supposedly being delayed by the West, the truth is that Putin started hostilities without proper preparation.
The expert notes that the threat of a large-scale Russian offensive against NATO countries is unlikely due to a lack of available resources. Instead, in the expert’s view, Moscow could pose a real threat through hybrid warfare with NATO, which would include sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, and drones.
In the expert’s view, Russia theoretically could repeat the scenario of the Ukrainian operation 'Spider' in Britain. However, in practice, Russian intelligence is not as strong as it is often portrayed. This was evident in past Kremlin operations, notably the unsuccessful attempt by Russia to assassinate Sergei Skripal in the 2018 year.
Against this backdrop, Bretton-Gordon believes Britain should heed Russia’s threats. However, there is no need to panic. Putin is under pressure on all fronts: military to economic sectors. In the Kremlin, factions are forming—some call for escalating the war, others for ending hostilities. It is currently unknown which group will prevail.
"That is why Britain must be prepared for the worst, hoping for the best. Defense spending is not a political luxury you can renounce when the Treasury trembles. It is a safety policy for the entire country," concludes Bretton-Gordon.
What preceded this
Recall that The Times previously reported that Ukraine began using British drones for deep strikes into Russia. It noted that the British UAV Nyan was used to attack Russian refineries near Moscow, in Yaroslavl and in Volgograd.
In response to this information, Russia accused London of the "deliberate pursuit of escalation of the Ukrainian crisis." Also at the Russian embassy they said that such actions by Britain "will inevitably have consequences for which it will have to answer."
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "РФ могла б повторити сценарій "Павутини": британський полковник про загрозу для НАТО". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: UNIAN.
