A new wave of migration from Ukraine to the EU could begin this winter: expert names the main reason

At the same time, supplying the military is also under serious strain \ Collage UNIAN, photo State Emergency Service of Odesa region, ua.depositphotos.comConstant enemy shelling of Odesa and an acute shortage of air defense systems could trigger another large-scale wave of Ukrainians leaving for European Union countries this winter. This is written by Michael Bociurkiw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to ramp up massive strikes, relying on Iranian technologies, military assistance and ballistic weapons from the DPRK, as well as Chinese components, the analyst notes. According to UN data, July became the bloodiest month for Ukrainian civilians since the spring of 2022, and local residents expect the upcoming season to be significantly harsher than the previous one.

The expert emphasizes that because of regular attacks on critical infrastructure and the lack of heat, power and water, city residents are already considering evacuation plans.

At the same time, supplying the military is also under serious strain: one Odesa officer admitted to the author that he is forced to raise funds on social media.

"The homeland provides us with only 60% of what we need. The remaining 40% my unit must raise on its own."

For this reason, Bociurkiw believes the approach of winter is causing growing anxiety among Ukrainians. If the destruction of critical infrastructure repeats last season’s scenario and the city’s port economy continues to fade, the consequences will be felt not only in Ukraine.

"This could cause a new large-scale wave of migration to the European Union. And then Russia’s bombing of Odesa will become Europe’s problem in the most literal sense," the expert warns, hinting that indifference to the city’s fate could turn into a new wave of displaced people right at the doorsteps of European neighbors.

President Volodymyr Zelensky previously said in a comment to CNN that only 5% of U.S. stockpiles of air defense systems would help the country get through the winter, and ten percent would completely eliminate the ballistic threat. Experts also place some hope in Turkey’s diplomatic efforts, which aims to negotiate with Russia a moratorium on strikes against commercial shipping in the Black Sea. However, the observer believes the reality remains troubling.

Strikes on the Odesa region - latest news

At night on 17 August, Russian forces once again attacked the region’s port infrastructure – a civilian vessel flying the flag of the Republic of Togo was damaged. Four people were injured, three of them hospitalized, one in serious condition.

During the day on 16 August, Russian forces attacked a post office in a shopping center in an Odesa suburb with rocket drones. There were also strikes on residential buildings. More than ten people were injured.