Bad news for the Russian Federation from Southeast Asia and beyond

Bad news for the Russian Federation from Southeast Asia and beyond

A recent report from the Singapore-based Southeast Asian studies institution ISEAS says that Russia's invasion of Ukraine inflicted incredible damage to the reputation of Russian defense equipment in Southeast Asia, which once was a source of significant revenue for it.

81 a day of extremely unproductive Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly affected the global arms market for the coming 20–25 years.

In the near term, Russia has the possibility of losing a large portion of its share in the arms market, and its place may be taken by high-tech manufacturers from the United States, the United Kingdom, India, or even North Korea, which may attempt to enter the regional market, as it produces weapons and ammunition from the Soviet era.

The most extensive fighting in Europe since World War II gives buyers of military products, in combat conditions, the opportunity to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of military equipment from various countries and manufacturers, without relying solely on the various marketing tricks of sellers of military equipment, such as the visually impressive promotional videos that shamelessly praise their products.

As cynical as it sounds, the war in Ukraine is a test of all characteristics of modern heavy, small arms, and other high-tech weapons in online mode.

Already now it can be asserted that the era of military equipment from the Soviet Union, albeit modernized, is clearly starting to fade into the past.

7 In April over Ukraine, one of the most advanced multirole fighter jets of the Russian Federation, Su-35 generation 4++, was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile, worth about $100 million (NATO designation: Flanker-E+), the procurement of which Vietnam actively considered.

14 In April in the Black Sea, Ukrainian forces, with the help of anti-ship cruise missiles, sank the missile cruiser Moscow, which earned it the dubious honor of being the largest warship destroyed since World War II.

It is worth noting that Russian equipment destroyed in Ukraine includes tanks used by Vietnam and Laos, BMPs and BTRs used by Indonesia, and combat and transport helicopters used by several Southeast Asian countries.

Numerous photos and videos of shattered Russian equipment cast doubt on its quality and reliability.

Many potential buyers of Russian equipment are beginning to have legitimate doubts about the necessity of such purchases.

Over the past 20 years, Russia has been the largest exporter of weapons to Southeast Asia, with Vietnam, Myanmar, Malaysia, and Indonesia as key customers.

For the period from 2000 to 2021 year, the volume of Russian arms exports to the region amounted to $10,87 billion.

United States - $8,4 billion;

France - $4,3 billion;

Germany - $2,94 billion;

China - $2,9 billion.

A key advantage of Russia over other countries is price and payment terms.

Russia offers these countries the full spectrum of military equipment, from fighters and submarines to tanks and small arms. In addition, Russian defense companies are willing to accept partial payments in goods, engage in co-production, and, unlike the United States and European countries, do not take human rights considerations in the country into account when selling weapons.

Economic sanctions and export controls imposed by the United States, European and Asian countries will hinder Russian defense enterprises from conducting financial operations, including receiving payments from foreign customers, and will limit access to technologies crucial for producing modern military equipment, which Russia itself does not produce and cannot easily purchase in other countries (semiconductors, microelectronics, machine tools, and software).

This will affect not only the production of military equipment for its own armed forces and foreign buyers but also the supply of spare parts, munitions, and modernization kits to existing clients.

The supply of spare parts has been an important source of income for Russia, especially given the higher service level required by Russian equipment compared with Western analogs.

Not long ago, Indonesia already expressed dissatisfaction with the quality of maintenance, repair, and overhaul of Russian equipment, especially Su-30.

Such significant “inconveniences” will force foreign buyers to switch to more reliable sources of military equipment.

What should Ukraine do?

In our information campaign we must not overlook the Southeast Asian countries, in particular Vietnam, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

All photo and video materials of moments of destruction of Russian military equipment in Ukraine must be translated into the languages of these countries (or at least have English subtitles) and bombarded into their information space.

What will this give?

The influx of such materials should finally undermine confidence in Russian military equipment and force clients in Southeast Asia to refuse to extend old defense contracts and to conclude new ones.

In turn, this will deprive Russia of foreign exchange earnings, negatively affect all defense industry enterprises of Russia with subsequent layoffs and, in the end, their closure.

Ivan Stupak, published on the author's Facebook page