Party of Mayors, Stop! How the President Is Putting Out the Revolt of Local Elites

Party of Mayors, Stop! How the President Is Putting Out the Revolt of Local Elites

How will the Bankova’s attempt to "structure the local political landscape" end?

The public conflict of Cherkasy mayor Anatoliy Bondarenko with the government and President Volodymyr Zelensky is the tip of the iceberg of problems that have accumulated between the central government and local leaders. On the one hand, official Kyiv lacks sufficient levers of influence over regional processes. On the other hand, it shifts responsibility for unpopular, difficult, or toxic decisions onto local self-government bodies. Those local leaders resist as they can…

So what lies behind Bondarenko’s and other city mayors’ decisions to loosen quarantine restrictions contrary to Cabinet of Ministers resolutions? Local leaders publicly justify themselves with business problems, but in reality they respond to public sentiment. The recent loud scandals—open construction hypermarkets and restaurants—added fuel to this fire by angering the public. But it’s not only that.

The current hyperactivity of mayors is also a kind of investment in their political future. And that future will be decided already in October 25—in the local elections.

Judging by recent events, the unofficial start of the election campaign has already taken place. Other city leaders have joined Bondarenko, although they try to avoid open conflict with the central government and the president.

"Undoubtedly, the campaign has already begun. To a lesser extent—by parliamentary political forces. They are now trying to concentrate their resources more locally and less in the public sphere. But, clearly, the situation with the Cherkasy mayor shows that local elites are not averse to using a convenient situation to stir up their electorate, showcase their candidate, allow him to receive certain bonuses, and so on. As a rule, this is done in order to later bargain with the central government, to negotiate on some mutually beneficial terms," explains Ihor Petrenko, Director of the Department of Internal Policy at the International Center for Policy Studies (ICPS).

At the same time, political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko believes this is more about increased media activity by certain mayors rather than a classic, albeit informal, election campaign. The real contest will begin after amendments to the Election Code are adopted, which will finally form the legal basis for this year’s local elections. Early activity by some candidates could play a cruel joke on them, the expert warns. Experience shows that candidates who "start" more than six months before the elections take great risks and often fail. For voters, decisive activity will be only in September and October of 2020 year.

Changes to the Election Code

According to the head of the Servant of the People party, Oleksandr Korniyenko, the Verkhovna Rada will officially announce the date of the elections roughly in mid-July. Before that, Parliament must draft and adopt amendments to the Election Code. These proposed changes are what have caused significant concern among potential participants in the pre-election races.

We are talking about the so-called "partization of power"—introducing a requirement that parties running in local elections nominate candidates in 2/3 constituencies across the country and setting a 5% electoral threshold. This would mean: if a political force does not gain more than 5% of votes nationwide, its representatives would not be able to obtain seats in a given city council, even if they won there. Another restriction provides that candidates may run for local councils without a party and without a monetary deposit only in settlements with no more than 10 thousand residents.

Such proposals, Korniyenko said, are "an attempt to bring order and structure the local political landscape." However, other politicians, especially representatives of local projects, believe these changes would significantly limit their chances to participate in the elections.

Later, Servant of the People assured that the changes to the Election Code would be purely technical. President Volodymyr Zelensky himself tried to put an end to the discussion. In his video address he said: "understanding their meager chances in the local elections, some parties are trying to change the legislation and establish contrived barriers for regional parties."

Zelensky emphasized that in this way "old politicians" want to enter local authorities, effectively depriving small parties and nonpartisan citizens of the opportunity to do so, and he promised that this would not happen.

"There will be no 2/3, or 5%, or other 'schemes.' This is both my position and that of the Servant of the People party. And to the 'old politicians' I can say only one thing: if you have no support in some region of our country, you need to change your actions, not the election law," Zelensky said.

This sharp contrast between earlier statements by the leader of the presidential party and the words of the head of state can be interpreted in different ways. The first scenario—call it 'it was all planned'—might look like this: first Zelensky’s team creates a problem, escalates the situation so that the president could later "heroically" resolve it and ultimately appear as a friend and savior for local authorities. The second scenario—'putting out the fire'—suggests the team initially sincerely believed it could tighten screws on mayors, but when they began coordinating their actions, Bankova was forced to back down.

Recall that the current Election Code came into force only in January 1 2020, and these local elections are the first large-scale expression of will under the new rules. But regarding additional changes to be made soon, the main issue is that there are currently neither concrete proposals nor an agreed draft, emphasizes Volodymyr Fesenko.

"Changes to the Election Code have been discussed before and are being discussed now. Proposals and interests differ. I can say for sure that the Servant of the People’s position on this issue has changed several times. It may change again. Secondly, the idea of elections by party lists recently was promoted not so much by the Servant of the People faction as by Opposition Platform — For Life and some others. But most importantly—at the moment there is no prepared draft of changes to the Election Code," Fesenko explains.

"Party of Mayors." No, don’t!

The scandalous proposals for the "partization of power" were certainly heard by local elites. Their reaction was quick. Rumors about the creation of a 'party of mayors' began reaching Bankova. According to Cherkasy mayor Anatoliy Bondarenko, such conversations among heads of different cities do indeed take place. Chernivtsi mayor Oleksiy Kaspruk confirmed this in an interview with Glavkom. He said the idea has been discussed for a long time and has a chance of coming to life.

The mayors of Odesa and Kharkiv already have experience creating a 'mayoral party'

Recall that a similar initiative already exists—the Trust the Deeds party, headed by Kharkiv mayor Hennadiy Kernes and Odesa mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov. Now the discussion might be about a more global project.

According to some media, talks about the possibility of uniting for local elections involve Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko, Dnipro mayor Borys Filatov, and former prime minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Groysman.

At the same time, as the capital’s mayor admitted, city leaders are discussing this possibility precisely because of the controversial proposals for changes to the Election Code. On the other hand, if the Rada, as the president promises, does not adopt them in that form, a 'party of mayors' may not appear.

For example, in an interview with Glavkom, Dnipro mayor Filatov said that, as of today, sociological polls show his convincing victory both in the case of self-nomination and running from a political party. And if the election legislation does not change significantly, he will go to the local elections with his new political project.

Filatov is convinced that no preparations by the Presidential Office will prevent him from winning the autumn elections in Dnipro.

Political experts also do not see much sense in creating a 'party of mayors' if the announced changes to the Election Code remain only proposals.

"There will be no single 'party of mayors' or a party that would unite the majority of mayors, for example, of regional centers. In the best case for the initiators of such a party, a few mayors of regional centers will join it," says Volodymyr Fesenko. "Moreover, I can say that most city leaders will more likely run either from their parties or as nonpartisan candidates. Some—from various parliamentary parties. That is, among mayors there will be complete party pluralism. The situation will not change fundamentally on this issue."

On the other hand, even if the idea of uniting mayors were realized, it could 'play' on national elections rather than local ones, believes expert Ihor Petrenko. This position is due to the fact that some mayors are not independent players but rather representatives of local elites. Those elites are primarily guided by local interests. Therefore, currently—especially if the Election Code does not strictly limit self-nominees and local political projects—there is no need for such a union. It might make sense only as an attempt to present a new political force in early parliamentary elections, Petrenko believes.

Daryna NYNKO, for Glavkom