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The UK Met Office warns of an extremely strong El Niño already forming in the Pacific Ocean. According to forecasts, the phenomenon could reach its peak by the end of 2026 year, and its consequences would be felt worldwide during 2027-th.
A powerful El Niño is developing in the Pacific Ocean, described by meteorologists as unprecedented. According to the Met Office, surface ocean temperatures in some regions could exceed the long-term average by more than 3 °C.
Adam Scaife, head of the Met Office long-range prediction division, said that such a strong El Niño signal had not been observed before.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about a year. It is associated with a weakening or reversal of the trade winds over the Pacific. As a result, warm water moves toward the eastern part of the ocean, and a large amount of heat enters the atmosphere.
Currently, the surface temperature in the El Niño zone is already more than 2 °C above normal. The Met Office forecasts that near the peak of the phenomenon, the deviation could exceed 3 °C. Some other climate models even allow warming up to 4 °C.
An additional factor could be a significant reservoir of heat in the deeper layers of the ocean. At depths of about 100 meters in some regions, water temperatures are approximately 8 °C above normal. This thermal energy could further amplify El Niño.
What could be the consequences
A strong El Niño can substantially alter weather conditions in different parts of the world. In Australia, the risk of droughts and large wildfires may rise. At the same time, in Peru, Ecuador, and the southern United States, the probability of heavy rainfall and floods increases.
In South Asia, the phenomenon is usually linked to a weakening of the southwest monsoon. As early as 2026 year, the amount of monsoon rainfall in the region trails behind average levels.
At the same time, El Niño can influence tropical cyclone activity. Atmospheric changes in the Caribbean and over the tropical Atlantic can suppress hurricane formation.
In Europe, impacts may appear in autumn and winter. In particular, the northwestern part of the continent is forecast to have an increased likelihood of wet and stormy periods. In the late stages of winter, El Niño, conversely, may contribute to colder weather in certain areas.
However, meteorologists emphasize that the impact of El Niño is not the same with every episode, so it is difficult to precisely predict weather consequences for a specific country in advance.
2027 year could break temperature records
Scientists are most concerned about the possible impact of the phenomenon on global temperature. During El Niño, heat from the ocean is actively released into the atmosphere, further accelerating global warming.
According to the Met Office, this effect is especially noticeable in the calendar year after the winter peak of El Niño. Therefore, meteorologists consider it very likely that 2027 year could become the warmest on record, surpassing the current record holder — 2024 year.
At the same time, experts emphasize that this is a forecast, not a guaranteed scenario. The final strength of El Niño and its impact on global temperature will depend on further development of oceanic and atmospheric processes.
Earlier, StopKor reported that the UN World Food Programme warned that a powerful El Niño could significantly worsen the global food crisis. By the end of 2027 year, the number of people suffering from acute food shortages could rise by another 50 million, with the countries most at risk in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Food prices in the world could also rise further due to crop failures.
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