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Roksolana Pyrtko analyzes three segments of Ukraine’s commercial real estate and explains where profitability actually forms in 2026 year.
The Ukrainian commercial real estate market in 2026 year has definitively split into three distinct segments with different logic, different risk profiles, and different profitability. Warehouse real estate yields 10–15% annually in dollars, retail objects in promising locations — 9–14%, while office real estate remains a tenant’s market with cautious stabilization.
Roksolana Pyrtko, CEO of the Roksolana shopping center and Spartak mall, explains what lies behind these figures and why comparing segments head-on is a mistake.
Three markets with different logic
“When people talk about commercial real estate as one market, that is no longer an accurate picture. Warehouses, offices, and shopping centers each live by their own rules today. Different demand, different tenant profiles, different reactions to the security situation. An investor or operator who transfers the logic of one segment to another will draw false conclusions,” says Roksolana Pyrtko.
The warehouse segment shows the most stable indicators: vacancy 3–4%, a deficit of space in 2–3 million sq. m, a new property finding a tenant in 1–2 months. This is a market of real goods flow, where demand is driven by e-commerce, logistics, retail, and pharmaceuticals.
The office market remains a tenant’s market. Large deals have almost disappeared, demand is concentrated in the 100–300 thousand sq. m range, and owners are forced to invest in renovations and autonomous infrastructure to retain tenants. At the same time, vacancy in Kyiv is gradually shrinking, and high-class A facilities are beginning to attract IT and international company demand.
Where the retail real estate stands
“A shopping center is the most difficult segment to manage among the three because it is most dependent on consumer behavior. A warehouse or an office is rented for operational necessity. A shopping center is visited when people want to visit. And the operator’s task is to make that want frequent,” notes Roksolana Pyrtko.
Capitalization rates on small retail objects stay around 10%. At the same time, profitability strongly depends on the specific object: occupancy by tenants, autonomous energy, traffic, and the quality of the operations team determine the result more than overall market conditions.
What actually decides the result
“The biggest mistake when analyzing the commercial real estate market is focusing on segment-wide averages. Average vacancy, average rate, average profitability. In Ukraine in 2026 year the gap between the best and worst objects in each segment is enormous. Two shopping centers in one city can show 5% and 18% vacancy simultaneously. This isn’t an anomaly, it’s the new normal,” summarizes Roksolana Pyrtko.
Reference
Roksolana Pyrtko, CEO of Roksolana shopping center and Spartak mall, manages over 100 000 million sq. m of commercial real estate. She has a legal education, a lawyer’s license, and more than fifteen years of experience in managing commercial properties.
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