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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
After the visit of the American guests and against the backdrop of air-raid alerts resuming in Kyiv, conversations will inevitably intensify about what else partners could do to increase Russia's motivation to reach agreements and to help Ukraine, especially ahead of winter?
There is nothing new to invent. We only need to demonstrate will. Alexey Kopitko writes about this.
What would make the missiles stop?
For example, a few weeks ago I made two publications about the supply of foreign alumina to Russia for the needs of the RusAl corporation.
RusAl is the largest aluminum producer outside China. In 2025, it produced about 5,3% of the world's aluminum and 4,7% of alumina (the raw material for aluminum).
Aluminum is used for ballistics, cruise missiles, drones, combat aviation, and many other military products. The nuance is that the raw-material base for aluminum production in Russia is tiny; for many years the Russians depended on supplies from the Mykolaiv Alumina Plant. They also sourced raw materials from Australia.
The loss of those two sources led to a shortfall of 2/3 of raw materials. It was replaced by supplies from China, Indonesia, Ireland, Kazakhstan, Jamaica, and India.
The first steps have already been taken
Five days ago Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andriy Sybyha, called on the EU to impose an embargo on alumina supplies to Russia.
At minimum, this decision would affect the Irish plant (17% of the raw material), which belongs directly to RusAl, and it would also affect 15% of raw materials from Kazakhstan (the enterprise in Pavlodar belongs to a corporation headquartered in Luxembourg).
Sybyha’s initiative fits well into the context.
Aluminum production in Russia is already unprofitable
As Kommersant writes, some time ago RusAl informed the Russian government of its intention to “modernize the raw-material complex in Russia” and “temporarily mothball part of the capacity.” In plain language—close ("temporarily") 4 enterprises:
Pikalovo Alumina Plant (PGLZ, Leningrad region);
Verkhnetagilskoye bauxite mine (SUBR, Sverdlovsk region);
Bogoslovsky Aluminum Plant (BAZ, Sverdlovsk region);
Ural Aluminum Plant (UAZ, Sverdlovsk region).
The reason: outdated production at these plants causes RusAl 800 million dollars in losses per year. And to bring them back to health would require 1,8 billion dollars.
At the same time, RusAl asks the state to help reduce the cost of imported raw materials (lower rail tariffs, which would cost Russian Railways/the budget 70 million dollars), and to assist in resolving social problems in the territories where production will be scaled back (additional costs).
For the results of 2025 year, RusAl increased revenue by 22,6% to 14,81 billion dollars, but reduced EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) by 29,5% to 1,05 billion dollars, and recorded a loss of 455 million dollars. In the first half of 2026 year, the price of aluminum helped improve the company's performance. Total debt currently stands at about 10 billion dollars, short-term loans and bonds amount to 8,6 billion dollars. The net debt to EBITDA ratio is x5,8. That's a lot.
That is precisely why the Russians are cutting everything loss-making. Help a bit, and the villains will completely falter. The story could be potentially dramatic.
Sverdlovsk region governor Denis Pasler is already jumping out of his pants, because RusAl’s plants are town-forming for Pervouralsk and Krasnoturyinsk. Thousands of people will be left without work; he will have to deal with it all.
Two months ago RusAl already shut down the silicon plant in Kamensk-Uralsky, laying off 200 people.
Pikalovo is a particularly epic plot. In 2009, the owners tried to “optimize” three plants there, threatening the collapse of the town. Unrest began, Putin came there and publicly humiliated RusAl’s owner—the oligarch Oleg Deripaska. And now this topic has arisen again.
How to destroy the aluminum industry in Russia?
The loss of domestic raw-material production in Russia means RusAl will increase imports. And here several measures would be very useful.
First, reinstate sanctions against RusAl. The Americans had imposed them, but Deripaska’s expensive lobbyists found ways to the heartstrings of American officials and achieved their removal.
Second, ban imports of alumina into Russia. This would complicate the company's operations, for some time (months) knock military aluminum consumers off schedule, ranging from the Votkinsk plant and Almaz-Antey to Uralvagonzavod and various Alabugs.
The result—fewer missiles and drones. They will become more expensive and take longer to produce. There will be fewer strikes on Ukrainian cities—fewer victims and less destruction. There will be a smaller flow of refugees in winter, which Europe will otherwise have to deal with (the EU risks spending orders of magnitude more money than might be used to compensate the Irish).
It would also reduce revenues to Russia's federal and regional budgets, and thus remove part of the resources needed to finance the war.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Щоб ракети більше не летіли: неочевидний крок, який допоможе перемогти Росію". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Channel 24.
