The main problem hasn't gone away: the NBU explains the situation in the labor market

The labor market in Ukraine began to feel new changes amid worsening business activity. Enterprises have become more cautious with hiring and opening new vacancies, while the problem of labor shortage has not disappeared.

Business has become more cautious with hiring employees

Russian attacks, which have intensified in the past months, affected the labor market in Ukraine – demand for workers declined. This was stated by First Deputy Governor of the NBU Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, reported by Interfax-Ukraine.

According to him, enterprises facing damage or destruction of production and warehouse facilities, disruptions in logistics, and high uncertainty are not rushing to expand their staff.

This directly affects the number of new vacancies. Companies are more cautiously assessing the need for additional workers and the possibility of expanding operations. According to the August survey of enterprises, expectations for staff numbers in different sectors vary significantly:

the construction business expected an increase in the number of workers;

industry expected a reduction in staff numbers;

retail companies also forecast a decrease in the number of workers;

the services sector expected a reduction, although the most pessimistic forecasts were in industry.

Labor shortage has not disappeared

Despite the decline in demand for new workers, businesses continue to face a personnel shortage. One of the main constraints for business operation is the lack of qualified specialists.

Therefore, the labor market well illustrates the overall state of the economy. Business has become more cautious with hiring due to heightened safety risks, but the fight for available workers has not disappeared. For many enterprises, the production constraint is no longer so much the lack of demand for their products but the physical shortage of people who can produce them,

– Lepushynskyi noted.

Thus, a decline in the number of vacancies does not mean that the problem of labor shortages for Ukrainian businesses has disappeared. Enterprises are forced to simultaneously restrain expansion and compete for workers who are already scarce.

By the way, the Ukrainian labor market may undergo significant changes in the coming years: demand for professions will be influenced not only by technologies but also by the labor shortage and war.

To assess which specialties will be in demand in 3 – 5 years, one can look at how everyday work has changed over the last decade. In particular, areas that require physical presence, manual labor, or constant interaction with the real environment are harder to automate: food delivery, construction services, work in the agricultural sector.