Strikes on Warehouses Will Hit Ukrainians’ Wallets: NBU Explained How Prices Will Rise

Russian attacks on warehouses and logistics centers are already forcing Ukrainian businesses to spend more on delivery and storage of goods. The National Bank of Ukraine expects that the restructuring of routes will additionally push inflation, and the most noticeable effect will be in the autumn.

This is written by Interfax-Ukraine.

According to Volodymyr Lepushinsky, deputy governor of the NBU, additional costs from reorganizing logistics could add about 0,4–0,6 percentage points to annual inflation by the end of 2026 year.

The regulator's July baseline forecast did not yet account for the new wave of destruction of logistics infrastructure. After the forecast was prepared, Russia delivered new strikes on warehouses and supply centers, increasing companies’ costs.

At the same time, the NBU does not expect a sharp price spike. Additional costs will gradually enter the price of goods, and part of the pressure will be restrained by competition among companies and weaker consumer demand.

Lepushinsky explained that losing a warehouse or distribution center does not mean that a business will automatically pass all losses on to buyers. Logistics and storage account for about 8% of the average consumer price, so only a portion of the new costs will directly affect the price of goods.

Even before the latest attacks, the central bank worsened its inflation forecast for 2026 year from 9,4% to 10%. The forecast for 2027 year was also raised—from 6,5% to 6,9%.

The price pressure has already intensified in the summer. In July, consumer inflation accelerated to 7,7% year over year after 7,2% in June, and in August, according to NBU’s operational estimates, price growth continued.

Russian strikes affect not only prices. Businesses report destruction of production and warehouse capacities, transportation problems, and difficulties in maritime logistics. As a result, companies have to look for new routes and reorganize supply.

Alternative logistics, however, are more expensive and have lower capacity. It is precisely the additional costs of transporting and storing goods that the NBU calls one of the factors that will press on prices in the coming months.