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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Ukraine is suffering defeat in the war, and Europe still has no workable plan for how to turn the tide.
This is written by The Spectator deputy editor Owen Matthews.
He begins with conclusions drawn after the visit of Trump’s representatives.
“In a sense Trump is very wrong to think that economic incentives can influence the Kremlin’s decisions. If Putin truly cared about the Russian economy, he would never have launched a full-scale invasion. For him it is not a question of money but a question of defending Russia from an existential threat. At the same time Zelensky is equally mistaken about Ukraine’s chances of defeating Russia or even halting the slow but steady advance of Russian forces. More importantly, while the Kremlin conducts a ruthless campaign to destroy Ukrainian cities, economies and the country’s future, Kyiv’s ability to defend itself increasingly comes into doubt,” the author writes.
Matthews emphasizes that Russia is ramping up production of missiles and drones, while Ukrainian air defenses are gradually being worn down. Zelensky’s adviser on defense technologies Serhiy Beskrestnov said that this winter Ukraine will not receive enough missiles to reliably protect cities: “The attack already exceeds the defense.”
Another critical problem the author names is the shortage of funds and personnel. Kyiv has already spent a significant portion of its defense budget on the 2026 year and is facing a shortfall of about 26 billion euros. In his view, Ukraine is simultaneously approaching shortages of Patriot missiles, servicemembers, and the resources to continue the war.
The author also reproaches Ukraine’s European allies for three strategic mistakes: Europe continues to buy Russian energy, is unwilling to deliver to Kyiv sufficient quantities of long-range weapons and air defense systems, and also avoids serious discussion of negotiations with Moscow.
Within Ukraine the situation is worsened by corruption scandals and a decline in trust in the authorities. The Spectator cites an SOCIS poll which found that a majority of Ukrainians consider corruption a more serious threat to the state than Russia, and almost 57 % place responsibility for its spread on Zelensky.
“Europe continues to utter the right words. But it has no concrete plan for how to help or save Ukraine from the Kremlin’s fury — and even less for how to undermine the Russian economy or break Putin’s will,” Matthews writes.
“What can save Ukraine from political and military collapse? Signs are emerging that the European political taboo on contacts with Putin is beginning to weaken. Alice Weidel of Germany’s AfD, who won in the Saxony elections, has called for ‘an open channel of communication with Russia to achieve mutual understanding and a peaceful resolution.’ According to Yuliia Mendel, Zelensky’s press secretary in 2019–2021, ‘new forces are rising, and they are growing stronger,’ and this is ‘our only chance for a peaceful Europe… New weapons will not save us. They never have.’ To date each successive peace proposal has turned out to be worse for Kyiv than the previous one. It appears that Putin’s apparent intent — to deliver a brutal finishing blow to Ukrainian cities before finally settling the conflict on his terms, possibly as soon as next year — may already be underway,” the author believes.
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