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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
While everyone is counting United Russia's percentages, the main thing is happening on the occupied lands. The Kremlin sold the war to Russians as an image of strength and is covering the annexation with it: for the first time it is "electing" deputies to the State Duma from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and almost all of them are collaborators or people from Moscow.
Kramatorsk and Sloviansk live under the Ukrainian flag. But in the documents of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation both cities belong to the Horlivka constituency No. 15, together with 551 thousand voters, and from 18 to 20 September Russia will "elect" them a deputy. The Kremlin does not need either the voter or control over the city. It needs a protocol that will lie on the negotiating table.
There was nothing for the voter to show United Russia (UR): fuel shortages, burned Wildberries warehouses, not a single victory at the front.
The army provided the image. On 1 August Russia fired 27 ballistic missiles at Kyiv, two were shot down. On the night of 5 August 17 people were killed. United Russia's rating in VTsIOM for that same month went down along with the missiles: 32,1% at the beginning of August and 39,2% three weeks later. A coincidence in time does not prove causation, and VTsIOM changed its methodology in May. But the Kremlin got the image "you are being hit by drones, we respond with ballistic missiles" precisely when there were no other arguments left.
The final cell of annexation
This image completes a process Moscow has been conducting for four years. The inclusion of four oblasts in Article 65 of the Russian Constitution in 2022, the "elections" to the occupation councils in 2023, 95,3% for Putin in the "DPR" in 2024, the redrawing of constituencies in 2025.
Now elections to the Duma: seven constituencies in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson plus four in Crimea and Sevastopol. For the world these mandates are null: back in 2022 the UN General Assembly 143 by vote rejected the annexation. But their addressee is different — the negotiating table. The Russian Constitution prohibits the alienation of territory, and to every demand the Kremlin will now reply by pointing to the "elected" representatives.
Who is going to the Duma
The regional group of UR for the occupied oblasts is headed not by Pushilin or Saldo, but by politicians and an admiral from Moscow: Vodolatsky, Moskalkova, Nikonov, Kasatonov. Within Russia itself governors lead 54 groups from 57.
Kherson region. All four candidates in constituency No. 187 are deputies of the occupation "regional duma." United Russia is running Olena Dmytruk, former owner of Khersonlift and widow of MP Mykola Dmytruk, now first deputy chair of the "duma." In 2022 she campaigned for locals to take Russian passports. The prosecutor's office has already sent an indictment against her to court; she faces from 15 years to life. Nearby are collaborators — Ramil Zamaltdinov (CPRF), Ivan Shumakov (LDPR) and Ihor Shepelin ("A Just Russia").
Zaporizhzhia. United Russia did not find a local candidate. Constituency No. 93 went to Oleksiy Tykhomyrov, a deputy of the Crimean "State Council." Until 2014 he sat in the Verkhovna Rada of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea from the Communists; after the annexation he headed the "Accounts Chamber" as deputy. In Ukraine he has been a suspect in treason since 2016 and is sanctioned by the National Security and Defense Council.
Donetsk region. In the Makiivka constituency No. 13 special correspondent of Channel One Irina Kuksenkova is running; in the Donetsk constituency No. 14 — State Duma deputy Oleksandr Borodai, 2014 year "prime minister of the DPR." Both are Russians, i.e., occupiers. In the Horlivka constituency No. 15 collaborator Serhiy Makarov from the coal holding Impex-Don is competing with Andriy Kramar (LDPR), born in Smolensk region, an associate of Pushilin. The CPRF nominates 27-year-old Serhiy Zakharchenko, son of the first leader of the "DPR." According to OstroV, Pushilin blocked his path to United Russia.
Luhansk region. United Russia gave both constituencies to collaborators from the "People's Council of the LPR": Denys Kolesnikov (Luhansk constituency No. 25) and Ivan Sanayev (Alchevsk constituency No. 26). Against them are collaborators from LDPR Maksym Uvarov and Halyna Dubrova and from "New People" Vadym Kolesnyk and Volodymyr Zhuk.
The group of "A Just Russia" for the occupied territories is led by Serhiy Arbuzov, first deputy prime minister in Yanukovych's era, wanted in Ukraine.
What this gave the Kremlin
The last polls before publication bans give UR 37,4% in VTsIOM and 33% in FOM. Then the CPRF with 13,1% and 10%, LDPR with 9,9% and 10%, "New People" with 10,4% and 5%, "A Just Russia" around 4%.
VTsIOM's forecast for UR from 51 to 53% matched not the rating but the Kremlin's KPI "above 50%", which Meduza wrote about.
Occupied territories in this arithmetic work like a cushion. And this despite the fact that, according to the Levada Center, cited by ICDS, 62% of Russians want negotiations with Ukraine. And the face of the party that "integrates" these lands became Mariya Lvova-Belova from the top five, whom the International Criminal Court is seeking for the deportation of Ukrainian children precisely from there.
Why Ukraine is silent
Ukraine's CEC recognized these "elections" null, the Foreign Ministry and intelligence warned of the consequences. But in 2023 occupation "elections" ministers of the G7 condemned them in a joint statement. This time, apart from a statement by International IDEA, a joint international voice is not heard, and Ukraine's CEC remains calling on foreigners not to send observers.
My explanation for the silence: a negotiation track mediated by the United States, where Washington does not want to irritate Moscow, and Kyiv's focus on air defense. The Kremlin takes advantage of this.
A deputy from Kramatorsk will be sitting in the Duma this fall. If the world is silent now, Moscow's next step will be to demand the city itself.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Депутат в Держдуму від Краматорська – міста, яке Росія не контролює". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Channel 24.
