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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
The European Commission proposes first using the European Peace Facility and the remaining funds from the SAFE program.
For the 2027 year, Ukraine is short about 69 billion euros beyond the aid donors have already pledged. However, Brussels received the new funding request with caution. European diplomats remind that Kyiv still has not passed the laws on which already agreed payments depend, Le Monde reports.
“It feels like we’re watering a desert,” one European diplomat said with frustration. On Tuesday, 29 September, the main donors to Ukraine gathered at the European Commission headquarters in Brussels: the EU, G7 countries, Norway, and South Korea. Representatives of the International Monetary Fund also took part. The aim of the meeting was to assess Kyiv’s needs, which despite already planned aid is asking for more.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has been talking about a lack of funds since August. At a “coalition of the willing” meeting in Kyiv on 24 August he spoke of a “hole” of 27 billion dollars (23 billion euros) just for the budget for the 2026 year. “We have found ways to reduce that amount,” Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said Monday during a speech at the Brussels think tank European Policy Centre. For the 2027 year, he said, Ukraine needs to find about 69 billion euros: 40 billion for military spending and 29 billion for the operation of state services. These calculations already include bilateral aid and a joint EU loan of 90 billion euros. From that loan, 30 billion per year are meant to go to armaments, and 15 billion to the budget.
Kyiv explains the rising needs by intensified Russian shelling. The attacks hit the economy and reduce tax revenues. Due to the blocking of grain exports through the Black Sea, agricultural exports fell by 60%, and the country is losing foreign exchange earnings.
“Since February 2022, the EU and its member states have provided Ukraine and Ukrainians with nearly 225 billion euros in aid,” EU Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Marta Kos reminded donors on Tuesday. The United States, after Donald Trump’s return to the White House at the start of 2025, has not given Kyiv any dollars. From the 90 billion-euro loan, Brussels had already paid out 15 billion by mid-September for the purchase of armaments.
So far the EU has not made a decision. “We are waiting for a breakdown of the needs and will see how we can respond. Discussions are expected at the ECOFIN council on 9 October or even at the European Council in mid-October,” a European diplomat said. His colleagues note that Ukraine has not yet received 15 billion euros allocated for budgetary needs. That money will be disbursed only after reforms, including anti-corruption measures.
“Our message to our Ukrainian friends is clear: implement the agreed reforms so we can continue to support you financially,” Kos emphasized.
The request arrived at a difficult moment. EU countries are negotiating the next multiannual budget, which foresees 100 billion euros for support to Ukraine in 2028–2034 years. Germany and its allies among the “frugal” countries want to cut the overall budget by several hundred billion, so announcing new aid to Kyiv is politically difficult.
The European Commission proposes first deploying all available instruments. In mid-September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggested using the remaining portion of a 150 billion-euro loan that the EU took out to rearm Europe. About 20 billion of that sum is still unallocated and could be used for drones and interceptors for Ukraine. Member states themselves would have to repay that money, which is unacceptable for Berlin and Paris at the moment.
It would be quicker to use part of the funds from the European Peace Facility of 6,6 billion euros. Hungary had blocked it for a long time with its veto, but after Viktor Orbán’s defeat in the April elections, this option is possible again. Another route is long-term disbursement from a 90 billion loan intended for the 2027 year. That would only postpone the problem.
There are also 210 billion euros of frozen Russian state assets in Europe, of which 180 billion are held in the Belgian depository Euroclear. Kyiv has for months been calling for their confiscation. Berlin and its allies again propose this option, but Belgium is not changing its position. The European Commission has still not found a way to shield the kingdom from legal claims.
“Even if we use frozen Russian assets, that will be a temporary solution. Europe needs a stable, permanent solution,” believes Fabian Zuleg, director of the European Policy Centre. According to him, Ukraine’s financial needs will be colossal during the war and afterward, when reconstruction begins.
According to preliminary IMF estimates, Ukraine’s financing shortfall through 2029 could reach 54 billion dollars, with the largest shortfall occurring in 2027: between 30 and 35 billion dollars. By the IMF’s November mission, Ukraine must confirm funding sources for 52,6 billion dollars, of which about 32,6 billion remain unconfirmed.
The idea of allocating the remaining SAFE funds to joint projects with Ukrainian defense firms has already met resistance from Poland, which has the largest quota in the program, 43,7 billion euros. There has also been no progress on Russian assets: Belgium does not want to release them from Euroclear without legal guarantees.
How the government is seeking money for the army and why international aid depends on decisions of the Verkhovna Rada is explained by Network for the Protection of National Interests (ANTS) analyst Serhiy Shyshko in the ZN.UA article “The Cost of Survival: How They Will Close the Hole in the State Budget-2026.”
Why even next year’s defense spending Ukraine cannot cover with its own funds is explained by ZN.UA’s economics editor Yuliya Samayeva in the article “Budget-2027 — a Colossus Built on Nonexistent Money.”
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "«Поливаємо пустелю»: у ЄС скептично сприйняли новий запит Києва — Le Monde". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: ZN.ua.
