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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Not agreed with anyone, but announced by the U.S. president. Donald Trump insists that both Russia and Ukraine have supposedly agreed to stop mutually striking energy infrastructure.
The White House occupant ardently wants to stop strikes on Russian oil refineries; Ukraine, meanwhile, received an empty promise. Despite Trump’s statements, Russia has not stopped striking Ukraine’s energy sector. Since Sunday night, Russian drones and missiles have continued to attack substations, power lines, heating systems, and gas fields.
What did the U.S. president agree to and with whom?
Donald Trump announced an energy truce between Ukraine and Russia. However, neither Kyiv nor Moscow officially reported any cessation of strikes.
Russian propaganda, speaking for the Kremlin, points to the absence of any documents that could confirm even the existence of an agreement. Donald Trump himself also cannot specifically explain with whom, where, when, and how he negotiated anything.
After the American president’s statement, the Russians continued to send drones and missiles at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. On Sunday and Monday the enemy struck the power transmission system, focusing mostly on Kyiv’s energy network. The Kremlin is trying to isolate and extinguish the capital.
CHP-5 in Kharkiv, which the Russians attacked after Donald Trump announced the energy truce
“What it’s about—you need to ask Trump himself. There’s no document, no agreements, don’t try to pull the wool over our eyes. Aren’t the Russians hitting our substations? Everything he’s saying should be divided by ten,” says Candidate of Technical Sciences and energy specialist Hennadiy Ryabtsev.
Russian strikes have not stopped in other Ukrainian cities either, including on heating systems. As happened on Sunday in Kharkiv: the Russians again attacked a local heating plant.
On Monday drones and missiles also targeted Ukrainian gas production. In Kharkiv region an unmanned vehicle damaged important equipment, causing a fire on site; workers were not injured.
So the Russians continue systematically destroying Ukraine’s energy sector ahead of winter. But Donald Trump either does not notice this or refuses to acknowledge it.
The American president did not publicly provide details about any agreement. But it turned out the halt in strikes may concern only the oil refining industries of the two countries.
A month before the U.S. midterm elections, Donald Trump took unprecedented steps. It appears the White House occupant is trying to protect Russian refineries from Ukrainian drones and missiles. Otherwise the president’s actions are extremely difficult to explain.
At first Trump negotiated the purchase of Russian diesel fuel: in this way he wants to bring down record-high gas station prices in the U.S. However this is a futile undertaking, and we already explained why in a separate piece.
According to Financial Times calculations, Russian diesel would cover only up to 4% of world consumption, which is an absolute pittance.
At the same time, Trump repeatedly tells TV cameras that Putin allegedly really wants to conclude a peace deal. But he harshly criticizes Ukraine’s president. Moscow is rejecting all possible proposals for a comprehensive cessation of strikes.
“If Russia wants us to stop our long-range strikes on its refineries and oil exports, then the Russian Federation must stop strikes on our energy system and critical infrastructure, and stop killing our people,” emphasized Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Ukraine has not officially abandoned the idea of striking Russian refineries. There are results from the attacks: the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine says 51% of enemy refining capacity has already been damaged or destroyed, although Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeatedly stated: Ukraine is ready for a truce and the Defense Forces have received the corresponding orders.
But Donald Trump does not like this and he has levers of pressure on Kyiv — from stopping arms sales to halting the transfer of intelligence.
“The only proper response to this separate agreement with the RF could be to continue kinetic sanctions on Russian refineries, and also to add key Russian ports on the Baltic through which most Russian oil and oil products are transshipped — Primorsk and Ust-Luga. Novorossiysk was already exhausted earlier. Take a few more cards in hand — and perhaps in a month Ukrainians will again become ‘the bravest warriors in the world,’ and Zelenskyy will again be the ‘good guy,’” says former CEO of Ukrenergo Volodymyr Kudrytskyy.
Ukraine’s president called the diesel deal with Russia a sign of Donald Trump’s weakness. Zelenskyy also said the U.S. should be talking to Ukraine about diesel supplies, because it is Kyiv that determines whether Russian refineries operate and whether Russian tankers can leave ports.
Ukraine continues to defend its position: a ceasefire is possible, but not on terms that benefit only the Kremlin.
“All of Donald Trump’s statements are not related to diplomatic successes. He will try to raise the Republican Party’s ratings ahead of the elections. Because no Republican president has worsened the level of this support as he has,” says military-political analyst of the Informational Resistance group, Oleksandr Kovalenko.
No nationwide electricity shortage in Ukraine, but significant problems in Kyiv and the region
The Russians are changing tactics in strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector. Now the Kremlin is directing drones at the power transmission system: power lines and substations are under attack. Two factors work to Russia’s advantage, and this is clearly seen in Kyiv.
First, Moscow has managed to ramp up production of kamikaze drones and increase their speed. Ukraine is already finding a way out: interceptors and large-caliber turrets using artificial intelligence. Although alerts in Kyiv are frequent, far fewer drones now reach the city than two weeks ago.
Eliminating the consequences of a Russian strike
Second, the Russians rely on mass application. It’s not so much a large number of drones in a single salvo as dispersing them into small batches. This creates significant risks for Kyiv’s energy network. In part the Russians do not fully destroy some energy facilities, but because of frequent alerts and the threat of repeat strikes, repairs are delayed.
Another important factor may overlap the situation: gradual cooling and increased electricity consumption.
“The first serious attacks on the Kyiv region’s energy infrastructure have already caused a series of emergency power outages in the capital and region, demonstrating the vulnerability of the energy system even at the current relatively low level of consumption, as well as the vulnerability of Kyiv’s critical infrastructure. And if ensuring stable power supply is already accompanied by significant difficulties now, then with further cooling, increased load, and likely continued Russian attacks the situation could become much more complicated,” explains former energy minister Olha Buslavets.
Overall the state currently has plenty of electricity — the balance is fairly favorable. Soon the planned maintenance campaign at nuclear power plants will end and two more units will return to operation. But transmitting power to the most problematic regions is impossible precisely because of the destruction.
This explains the introduction of rather strict schedules in Kyiv and the region. The situation changes almost daily: for example, over the weekend Russian strikes inside the capital again caused temporary water supply problems. Pressure in the network fell on both banks of Kyiv.
But energy problems are not measured by the capital alone. Over the weekend the Russians directed strike drones at western regions of Ukraine. They hit energy infrastructure in Rivne and two other districts of the region, causing power outages.
The Kremlin is again trying to implement an old plan — to disconnect Ukrainian nuclear power plants from the grid. Recall that every second kilowatt in Ukraine is generated at nuclear power plants (last heating season this share was even higher — 60%).
Overall the week of scheduled blackouts began for several regions, but which ones — Ukrenergo has not reported. For them power will be turned off for up to six hours a day. Businesses and industry are also subject to restrictions.
“This is a forced step that helps avoid network overloads and protect the system from large-scale failures. Current schedules are posted on the official resources of regional distribution system operators. Learn about changes in power supply on the pages of your region’s Oblenergo,” reminds First Deputy Minister of Energy of Ukraine Artem Nekrasov.
At the same time, the ministry reported that on Monday, due to hostilities, some consumers in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv regions were temporarily without electricity.
With falling temperatures, electricity consumption is rising, currently very moderately: less than 2% compared to last Friday. At the same time the efficiency of solar PV generation is gradually decreasing.
Alongside strikes on the power sector, the Russians do not stop attacks on gas infrastructure. Since the beginning of the year, about four hundred such shellings have been recorded, more than double compared to 2025. This was told by the deputy director of the Association of Energy and Natural Resources of Ukraine, Andriy Zakrevskyy.
Attack on gas production infrastructure in Kharkiv region
The specialist explains: residents of gasified homes survived last winter much more calmly. The expert says that at present there are no risks of supply interruptions.
“There is gas and there will be gas. And here the situation is much safer than in the power sector. The main question for winter has been closed,” adds Andriy Zakrevskyy.
The main criterion for successful preparation for the heating season is the system’s ability to meet critical needs after new attacks and during peak winter consumption, says DiXi Group cofounder and director of research Roman Nitsovych.
The expert explains: according to the government plan as of 1 November, available electricity capacity in Ukraine should reach 19.6 GW (which is more than last winter’s peak consumption). This figure also includes cogeneration and import volumes from EU countries.
“It’s important not only how much capacity is commissioned, but how flexible, diversified and geographically dispersed it is. The second criterion is fuel availability. Ukraine has early accumulated 14,6 billion cubic meters of natural gas in underground storage, meaning it met the plan for the baseline winter scenario,” says Roman Nitsovych.
However the specialist adds that gas reserves alone do not guarantee resilience. Reliable logistics (the ability to deliver gas) and reserves for cogeneration and heat supply are also needed. The third criterion of quality preparation for the new wartime winter is the readiness of critical infrastructure on the ground.
“We mean backup power for heat, water supply, sewage and other facilities, prepared repair crews, stocks of equipment and materials, and practiced emergency response scenarios. As of mid-August backup power provided 918,5 MW, or 75,6% of the needs of heat and water supply facilities,” the expert adds.
The government says it has unblocked winter preparation funding
The Cabinet finally allowed financing the implementation of resilience plans. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said this during a session of the Verkhovna Rada. The official hopes localities will still have time to prepare for winter. This ended nearly a month-long confrontation between the government and communities. In September the Cabinet halted funding for a number of budget expenditures as part of austerity measures because a hole opened in Ukraine’s budget.
Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko
Funding for resilience plans was banned, which put winter preparation at risk. For weeks mayors effectively went on a political pilgrimage to Kyiv: trying to beg the government for funding at least for the most critical works. Last week the situation significantly escalated: in a number of cities they said they had no money to pay, for example, salaries to janitors and employees of heating companies.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the State Treasury did not execute payments totaling 46 billion UAH. At the same time the Association of Ukrainian Cities insists the funding halt was illegal. After all, these are state budget expenditures, and that is a law of the Verkhovna Rada which is higher than any Cabinet decision.
“Municipalities ask to be allowed to use the funds available in their accounts, according to priority. That is where it’s necessary to pay salaries, fuel ambulances or collect garbage. The government has taken a pause and is watching: will they survive or not,” says advisor to the head of the Association of Ukrainian Cities Oksana Prodan.
A telling situation is in Kyiv, where with the first power outages problems with water supply arise. According to the director of the Center for Energy Studies Oleksandr Kharchenko, under the resilience plan the capital was to provide the water utility with backup power in several stages. They have managed to secure the enterprise from total collapse in case of prolonged outages.
But they failed to power the pumping stations of some Kyiv districts with reserves in time. That is why during power outages caused by Russian strikes there may be interruptions in water supply in the capital.
“Diesel power plants need to be installed there. Generators can’t handle it because the required capacity is large — 10–12 MW. Gas generation cannot be installed there. Sites were prepared for these diesel power plants, equipment was ordered and it was supposed to arrive about now. But the government ran out of money and the treasury account won’t allow payment so that this equipment can arrive,” explains Oleksandr Kharchenko.
Overall we are talking about 600 million UAH. There is hope that after Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko’s statement these funds will indeed be transferred.
Blocking funding does not remove the Kyiv city government’s responsibility for its rather late actions. However it clearly illustrates how important close cooperation between communities and the government is in preparing cities for winter.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Енергетичне перемиря на користь Кремля. Чому Дональд Трамп хоче захистити російські НПЗ". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: LB.ua.
