Dollar at 50 hryvnias? The NBU answered what will happen to the exchange rate, and the IMF gave a forecast for the economy

In the National Bank of Ukraine, they explained whether one should expect a sharp jump in the dollar rate, and the International Monetary Fund assessed Ukraine's economy growth prospects in 2026-2027 years.

“The exchange rate doesn’t fly into space”: what the NBU says. First Deputy Governor Volodymyr Lepushynskyi told a Newsy.LIVE journalist whether to expect the dollar at 50 hryvnias at the beginning of 2027 year, that the regulator does not forecast a specific hryvnia-to-dollar rate. At the same time, according to him, NBU experience shows that sharp, uncontrolled rate jumps should not be expected. Lepushynskyi noted that the primary task of the National Bank remains to return inflation to the target level of 5% and to keep it near that level thereafter. “From all the practical experience the National Bank has conducted in the currency market, we can say with certainty that the rate does not fly into space,” said the NBU deputy chairman. What forecast does the IMF give for Ukraine’s economy? The International Monetary Fund, in its October World Economic Outlook, kept the forecast for real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2026 for the year at 1%. By comparison, in 2025 the growth was 1,8%. For 2027 the IMF predicts an acceleration of growth to 3,5%. What is happening with inflation? Recall that in September consumer inflation in Ukraine was 2,1% compared with August and 10% year-over-year. Core inflation for the month was 2%, and for the year — 8,8%. Eggs were the most expensive month-on-month, rising by 43,6%. Prices also rose for clothing and footwear, fuel and lubricants, medical services and education. At the same time, fruits became cheaper by 5,7%, and vegetables by 2,3%.

In the background of heightened inflationary pressure in September, the NBU raised the policy rate to 16%.