Dollar at 50 hryvnias in 2027 year: NBU explained whether to expect a sharp jump

The National Bank of Ukraine does not forecast a specific exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar and does not confirm a scenario in which the American currency will necessarily cost 50 hryvnias already at the beginning of 2027 year. The regulator emphasizes that the main task is not to hold a fixed number, but to prevent uncontrolled fluctuations and to return inflation to its target level.

This is written by Deputy Governor of the NBU Volodymyr Lepushinsky.

In response to questions about a possible rate of 50 hryvnias per dollar at the beginning of next year, Lepushinsky noted that the central bank does not set a specific rate value in advance.

At the same time, he drew attention to the experience of the NBU in the currency market. According to him, the regulator has enough tools to avoid sharp and uncontrolled movements in the exchange rate.

“From all the practice that the National Bank has conducted in the currency market, we can say with certainty that the rate does not fly into space,” said Lepushinsky.

The main reference point for the NBU remains inflation. The regulator aims to bring it back to the target level 5% and subsequently keep it near that indicator.

This means that the statement by a representative of the National Bank is not a guarantee of a specific rate at the beginning of 2027 year. The further dynamics of the hryvnia will depend on the state of the economy and the situation in the currency market.

An additional reference point remains forecasts of the International Monetary Fund. In the October World Economic Outlook, the IMF kept its forecast for real GDP growth of Ukraine in 2026 year at 1%.

For comparison, in 2025 the Ukrainian economy grew by 1,8%. For 2027 year, the fund expects acceleration of GDP growth to 3,5%.

At the same time, the GDP forecast does not allow for determining the future dollar exchange rate in a specific month. The NBU does not provide a fixed forecast for the hryvnia, so a rate of 50 hryvnias per dollar cannot be considered a pre-determined scenario.