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Parties that Trump supports oppose military aid to Kyiv and defensive cooperation among Europeans.
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to influence coalitions in Poland, Romania, and Germany. To do this, it supports politicians close to MAGA, including opponents of aid to Ukraine. In September Trump publicly congratulated the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on its victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election. Washington urges Europeans to strengthen their own defense, yet it supports politicians who are against that. Journalist Anne Applebaum, wife of Poland’s foreign minister Radosław Sikorski, wrote about the contradiction for The Atlantic.
The most telling case is Poland. According to Polish media, in the spring Trump indicated to Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz that he would be more valued in Washington if he left the governing coalition and made a deal with nationalist and far-right parties. The leader of the small agrarian Polish Peasant Party heard this proposal after a ceremony honoring an American soldier who saved a Polish serviceman in Afghanistan. Kosiniak-Kamysz did not follow that advice.
In Romania, according to The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, then-U.S. ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle at a dinner in Athens in March mentioned problems in Romania’s governing coalition and took credit for its impending breakup: "We can do this with any country we want." Guilfoyle and her lawyer denied everything, including that the conversation took place at the dinner. She later resigned over a different scandal.
The ambassador promoted a "vertical gas corridor" — a system of pipelines connecting Greece, Romania, Ukraine, and other southeastern European countries — as well as purchases of U.S. liquefied natural gas. Then–Romanian prime minister Ilie Bolojan supported the pipeline but did not want to buy U.S. gas: it was not price-competitive, and Romania was preparing to export its own.
On the same trip Guilfoyle dined with Sorin Grindeanu, leader of the Social Democrats — the party that was part of Bolojan’s coalition. Later the Social Democrats left the coalition and, together with the far right, voted a motion of no confidence in the government. Bolojan resigned. Grindeanu categorically denied American influence on that decision. Far-right Romanian leader George Simion called Guilfoyle a "good friend," but also denied that she influenced the vote.
In Germany some politicians believe Washington wants the conservative CDU to break the "sanitary cordon" — the long-standing agreement not to allow parties sympathetic to fascism into power — and form a coalition with the AfD instead of a coalition with the Social Democrats. Trump did not address CDU leaders directly, but he congratulated AfD’s success: in Saxony-Anhalt the party received 43,8% of the vote. Elon Musk spoke online at an AfD event before the Bundestag elections, and the X social network algorithm gives his posts significant reach.
According to a senior CDU member, when a group of German deputies went to Washington, only representatives of the CDU and AfD were admitted to the Pentagon and State Department, while the Social Democrats were not. The Christian Democrats refused the meetings. Party leadership took this as a signal: the only partner recognized in Washington is the AfD.
For Ukraine it matters what views are held by the politicians Washington supports. AfD co-chair Alice Weidel is against military aid to Ukraine and against defensive cooperation with other European countries. On 24 September the party’s parliamentary group tabled a proposal in the Bundestag to deny Ukraine EU membership and military guarantees, and to stop German aid except for humanitarian assistance until serious negotiations with Russia begin. Party co-chair Tino Chrupalla demands the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany.
Romanian far-right leader Simion has previously advocated restoring Romania’s borders to those of 1940, including territories that now belong to Ukraine. Polish far-right groups increasingly repeat anti-European and anti-Ukrainian narratives popular in Washington and Moscow.
This contradicts the stated U.S. position. U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby earlier said at NATO headquarters that partners should take primary responsibility for the conventional defense of Europe. Yet the administration supports politicians who oppose rearmament and defense cooperation. Europeans are bewildered: the U.S. previously supported democracy as a system and consistently opposed Russia, and now it seems to have changed its approach.
In May the Romanian parliament expressed no confidence in Bolojan’s pro-European government: 281 deputies voted for this, although 233 votes would have been enough for his resignation.
Meanwhile, Germany’s AfD is discussing how to change its stance on the country’s membership in the European Union. According to a strategic document seen by Reuters, the party proposes first to renegotiate EU treaties, and to consider a referendum on exit only if those reforms fail.
On why Kyiv should already be preparing a "Plan B" in case the AfD gains strength, German historian Thomas Vayé, PhD in history from Humboldt University and former chairman of the board of the Victor Pinchuk Foundation, explains in the ZN.UA article "Mertz Still Keeps a Course Toward Ukraine. But Kyiv Should Already Prepare a Plan B."
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