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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Ukraine could be ordered to pay compensation in international investment arbitrations for the confiscation and nationalization of assets belonging to sanctioned individuals. In just the cases of Motor Sich, Sense Bank, and VEB.RF the claims exceed $3 billion. This is reported by former editor of Economic Pravda Serhiy Lyamets.
He attributes the potential losses to miscalculations by officials who prepared the sanctions decisions, in particular the president’s sanctions policy commissioner Vladyslav Vlasiuk and former Deputy Head of the Office of the President Iryna Mudra.
According to ICLG, as of November 2025 there were 47 investment disputes against Ukraine, and in nine cases rulings were made against it.
On 1 May 2026 the ICSID tribunal ordered Ukraine to pay $71 million and interest for the expropriation of shares of the Zaporizhzhia Aluminum Plant, which was controlled by Rusal of Oleg Deripaska. The seizure was accompanied by Ukrainian sanctions that the tribunal found to be weakly justified.
“War, in the eyes of ICSID, did not become the dominant factor,” Lyamets writes. He says the arbitration assesses not rulings of the High Anti-Corruption Court or the Law on Sanctions, but compliance with investment protection agreements.
Among other disputes is AEROC’s claim for €100 million over factories confiscated from the Russian LSR group and sold to Hennadiy Butkevych.
The author sees the biggest risk in ABH Holdings’ claim regarding Sense Bank, nationalized in 2023. The demands are $653 million.
Ukraine’s position is complicated by investigations surrounding the bank. The Kyiv Independent reported that the nationalization enabled a group of senior officials to take control of the bank. According to the outlet, Mudra aided in appointing Mykola Hladyshchenko as chairman of the supervisory board.
Since 2023 Vlasiuk represented the state on the bank’s supervisory board while also handling sanctions. Media reports of suspicions do not mention him. The author believes arbitration could view the combination of these roles as a conflict of interest.
“ABH’s defense will have every reason to claim that Sense Bank was nationalized to build a corrupt business on its basis,” Lyamets writes. The claimant could also cite the General Court of the EU’s 2024 ruling annulling sanctions against Fridman and Aven.
One investment case costs the state on average $4,7 million. Just the Justice Ministry’s contracts with Quinn Emanuel regarding Sense Bank amount to €3,784 million. For now the balance is positive: the sale of sanctioned assets in 2025 yielded 4,51 billion UAH.
The author acknowledges Ukraine’s strong arguments, including Russia’s armed aggression, but asks: “Who should have warned the president and the National Security and Defense Council about the possible consequences?”
On 20 August 2026, NABU and SAP announced suspicions in the scope of Operation ‘Forrest Gump.’ According to media reports, among the suspects are Mudra and Hladyshchenko. Mudra declined to comment.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Санкції без прорахунку наслідків: як Власюк і Мудра могли підставити Україну під мільярдні позови". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Zavtra.UA - About What Will Happen Tomorrow.
