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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
18 October is the deadline set for Trump by the Trump law on “hellish” sanctions (according to the author’s location, Sen. Graham) against Russia. By that time Trump must decide which sanctions he will apply against Moscow and against Putin personally, as well as against buyers of Russian oil and other raw materials. So it’s easy to guess there will be no talks before that date, unless the Americans offer the Russians the lifting of sanctions instead of imposing them. But that is unlikely to happen before what are already tense elections for the Republicans in the U.S. Moreover, Russian oil cannot close the shortfall caused by the war in the Middle East, and lifting sanctions would not reduce oil prices but would increase Russia’s revenues due to lower costs of evading sanctions.
In short, nothing significant will happen before 18 October. Then come the U.S. elections (3 November), which will completely consume the American establishment. And by 18 November, a potential Trump–Putin meeting, the U.S. president will be in a new political reality, looking toward the election of a new president in 2028, while still retaining control of the Senate and the House until January 2027. It is during this period that the most interesting things may occur.
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