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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
The schedule of upcoming events in the development of the war in Ukraine looks like this:
— By 18 October so-called “hellish” sanctions need to be imposed, which Trump does not want to impose on Russia, and cannot impose on India and China
— therefore until 18 October the Americans are interested in holding a showcase Ukraine–Russia meeting so that Trump can justify to Congress the impracticality of imposing sanctions
— On 18 November a Trump–Putin meeting in China is expected at the APEC summit, where there could be a return to the terms of the “Anchorage deal”
— until 18 November the harshest possible strikes on Ukraine will continue with the aim of demonstrating to Trump and Europe that peace is only possible on Russia’s terms.
— if after the Trump–Putin meeting no agreement is reached, the war will become even more brutal, and by spring Ukraine will be in ruins
— spring 2027 elections in France; based on their outcome the Kremlin will adjust its position — if European support collapses, the war of attrition will continue; if European support holds, Russia will move to mobilization.
I maintain my forecast that the war will end by the fall of 2027 or earlier.
In connection with this I am opening a new counter.
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