Back
Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
If you read my posts about how the war in Ukraine will play out in practice (see Part I, Part II, and Part III above), then now we can talk about the timing for the end of the war, which will depend not on the availability of people or money but on reaching the point at which Ukraine turns into a powder keg that can no longer remain a single entity. For that to happen, the central and southern parts of Ukraine would have to demand the end of the war and elections, while the west would have to favor continuing the war and keeping Zelensky, or his equivalent, in power. In other words, pro-peace sentiments would have to decisively oppose pro-war sentiments.
This could happen in a number of cases.
1) a peace agreement with the Russian Federation on the Kremlin’s terms
2) a ceasefire to hold elections and the rise to power in Kyiv of a real “party of peace”
3) a military coup
4) military exhaustion, as a result of which Russian forces again threaten Kyiv
Any of these scenarios could materialize no earlier than spring–summer of 2027 in light of the various possible developments in the United States and Europe, as well as on the front and inside Ukraine.
Dubinsky’s club channel is here
I’m raising bail HERE 💸
Support the channel ⭐️
Telegram publication