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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
A symbolic campaign to coerce Russia into culpability has lasted for 40 days; the main executor identified by SBU. President 4 in August heard from head of the Security Service Oleksandr Poklyad and approved new tasks, and it will be actions, not statements, that determine the further course of events. This was reported by military analyst Oleksiy Kopytko. In his assessment, the campaign has already targeted more than 100 significant objects deep in the enemy’s rear. The analyst emphasizes that the goal is not the instant end of the war, but building up pressure capable of “shooting off” in winter.
Kopytko answered in his Telegram channel to skeptical comments that Russia has not stopped the war despite 40 days of the campaign. According to the analyst, the main aim of the campaign is not immediate peace, but creating conditions for real de-escalation.
"The mainstream in recent months in Ukraine is that Putin will dig in and the war will continue into 2027 year, but we are making efforts to create additional pressure factors by the end of autumn and cut Russia’s ability to continue aggression so that there is ground for real de-escalation even to a ceasefire," Kopytko noted.
The analyst paid the most attention to strikes on Russia’s oil industry. He highlighted two key hubs: three oil refineries in Ufa along with the linear production-dispatching facilities “Cherkasy” and “Subkhankulovo,” which provide pumping of Siberian-Bashkir oil westward, and also a patch of five oil depots in the suburbs of Stavropol, four of which were attacked just when fuel was needed by Russian farmers. In addition, three Lukoil oil-producing facilities in Perm, Volgograd, and Nizhny Novgorod, facilities in Yaroslavl, Saint Petersburg, Kaluga region, an oil platform in the Caspian and an oil depot in Tver were hit.
"SBU, in a number of examples (Bashkortostan, Kerch), showed that almost any district with targeted facilities can be uncovered and dismantled," Kopytko noted.
A separate direction was the operation of Russian airfields — Engels in the Saratov region, several sites in temporarily occupied Crimea, and the Han’ska base near Maykop. Among the trophies, the analyst named the strategic bomber Tu-95, two Su-35 fighters, two training-combat aircraft, and the Oriole drone. Also, according to him, the SBU dismantled elements of Russia’s air defense, notably over Rostov region near Taganrog and in Rostov itself.
On the water, as Kopytko explained, combat experimental boats helped orient several tankers of Russia’s "shadow fleet" in the Black Sea, and drones tracked a missile boat on the Caspian Sea just before Navy Day. The analyst also mentioned the destruction of the FSB coordination center on the Arabat Spit and results from other defense forces — strikes on shipping in the Azov Sea, anti-logistical pressure in Pryazovye, blackout of the occupiers in Crimea, and damage to Wildberries warehouses.
Increase pressure by the end of autumn
Kopytko emphasizes that all listed results will be achieved by Russia in a rising progression if it refuses to come to its senses by winter. According to him, by September the intensity of pressure will only grow.
The analyst urged Russians to seek ways themselves to influence the Kremlin leadership, hinting that further escalation of strikes on Russia’s infrastructure will depend on Moscow’s position on halting hostilities.
Analysts assess the prospects for ending the war
Earlier, Informator reported that the Kremlin could be ready for dialogue on a ceasefire by autumn. Kopytko explained then that problems in the Russian economy would gradually push the Kremlin toward reconsidering its position on continuing the war.
We also wrote that Putin is being prepared grounds for a new wave of mobilization. Intelligence recorded that the pace of contract recruitment in Russia is falling, while the number of jobs with a military component is rising, which may indicate preparation for forced replenishment of the army.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Кампанія ударів по РФ створює умови для реальної деескалації до кінця осені - експерт Копитько про 40 днів для Путіна". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Informator.
