Dollar at 49 hryvnias: what economists forecast the rate to be by the end of 2027 year

Over 2026-2027 years, the dollar rate will continue to rise, with the average exchange rate by the end of this year projected at 46 hryvnias per dollar.

The average annual hryvnia-to-dollar rate for 2026 year is expected to be 44,5 hryvnias, and for 2027 year — 47,1 hryvnias. By the end of 2026 year, the exchange rate is expected to be on average 46 hryvnias, and by the end of 2027 year — 49 hryvnias per dollar. Also read: Which factor will determine the dollar rate at the beginning of August? This forecast combines assessments from non-governmental economic organizations, namely investment companies Concorde Capital, Dragon Capital and ICU, as well as Kyiv School of Economics, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, German Economic Team and WIIW. The Center for Economic Strategy provides the median (average) hryvnia-to-dollar rate, formed based on the forecasts of the organizations listed. Forecast for NBU reserves Experts expect that the National Bank will continue to build up foreign exchange reserves by converting external financial aid (foreign currency to hryvnia). According to the average forecast of experts, in 2026 year NBU reserves will rise to 61 billion dollars, and in 2027 year — to 63 billion dollars. Also read: Why did the National Bank raise the policy rate? While discussing these forecasts, NBU Deputy Chairman Volodymyr Lepushynskyi stated that the reserves of the NBU by the end of this year could grow to as much as 70 billion dollars. Thus, the central bank will have enough capacity to conduct interventions on the interbank market. “The need for interventions will be high, but we have international reserves to cover them,” he said.

As a reminder, as of the morning of 5 August, the average buying rate for dollars in exchange offices and bank cash desks stood at 44,63 hryvnias, which is 7 kopecks lower than the previous day’s value. The selling rate for U.S. dollars was 44,75 hryvnias (-7 kopecks). On the cash market, euros were sold on average for 51,55 hryvnias and bought for 51,35 hryvnias. On 6 August, the NBU lowered the official dollar rate by 6 kopecks—to 44,68 hryvnias, while the official euro rate rose by 9 kopecks—to 51,62 hryvnias. The National Bank does not forecast significant dollar rate spikes amid blocking of exports of agricultural products and metallurgical industry outputs. The regulator will curb dangerous volatility in the currency market.