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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Over 2026-2027 years the dollar exchange rate will continue to rise gradually, and by the end of this year the average exchange rate is forecast at 46 hryvnias per dollar. Such data are provided by other forecasts for 2026 year from leading experts. According to updated calculations, in 2027 year the dollar could become even more expensive. The forecast published by 5 in August is based on assessments by several independent economic organizations.
The updated macroeconomic forecast was published by the Center for Economic Strategy, which united the assessments of leading non-governmental economic organizations. The average annual hryvnia-to-dollar rate for 2026 year is expected to be at 44,5 hryvnias, and for 2027 year – 47,1 hryvnias.
The forecast consolidates assessments from such organizations:
Concorde Capital, an investment company
Dragon Capital
ICU
Kyiv School of Economics
Institute of Economic Research and Political Consulting
German Economic Team
WIIW
The Center for Economic Strategy provides the median, i.e., the average hryvnia-to-dollar rate formed based on forecasts from all listed organizations. By the end of 2026 year the expected exchange rate averaging 46 hryvnias, and by the end of 2027 year – 49 hryvnias per dollar.
NBU reserves may rise to 70 billion.
Experts expect the National Bank to continue building up gold-and-foreign-excurrency reserves by converting external financial assistance into hryvnia. According to the average forecast, in 2026 year the NBU reserves will grow to 61 billion dollars, and in 2027 year to 63 billion.
During discussions of these forecasts, Deputy Chairman of the NBU Volodymyr Lepushynskyi stated that reserves could rise even to 70 billion dollars by the end of this year.
"The need for interventions will be high, but we have international reserves to cover them," said Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, Deputy Chairman of the NBU.
According to him, such a level of reserves will give the regulator enough room for interventions on the interbank market. The regulator currently does not forecast sharp jumps in the dollar rate, despite blocking the export of agricultural machinery and metallurgical products, and intends to curb dangerous volatility on the foreign exchange market.
What is happening with the rate right now
As of the morning of 5 August, the average buying rate of the dollar in exchange offices and bank cash desks was 44,63 hryvnias, which is 7 kopecks lower than the previous day. The selling rate of US dollars was 44,75 hryvnias. On the cash market, euros were sold on average for 51,55 hryvnias, and bought for 51,35 hryvnias.
On 6 August the National Bank lowered the official dollar rate by 6 kopecks to 44,68 hryvnias, while the official euro rate, conversely, rose by 9 kopecks to 51,62 hryvnias.
What forecasts for the coming months and years were given earlier
Earlier Informator reported that economists assessed the impact of expensive oil and export problems on the currency exchange rate in August, analyzing whether the hryvnia can withstand pressure and whether the NBU can keep the situation under control. We also wrote that KSE Institute forecast the dynamics of the national currency at the end of 2029 year and named the amount Ukraine will additionally need to attract to stabilize the economy at this horizon.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Центр економічної стратегії дав прогноз курсу долара до 2027 року". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Informator.
