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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Presumably, 1 in July Ukrainians attacked Moscow with a new type of ballistic missile. This missile, which, according to reports, was shot down by air defense over the Russian capital, is a precursor of the future.
24 The channel has exclusive rights to translate and publish David Axe's materials from the Euromaidan Press (EP) portal. The original publication initially appeared on the EP site and is published with the rights holder's permission.
Ukrainian ballistic missiles could save us from constant Russian attacks.
Ukrainians are developing several new ballistic missiles with a range that allows reaching Moscow, located 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. If and when such ballistic missiles begin to fall on Russian cities, gas facilities, plants, and oil refineries, Russia will have to change its mode of warfare.
Perhaps the Russians will have to aim their best air defense batteries of S-400 into the sky, not at the ground. For Ukraine this could mean some respite from relentless Russian missile strikes. After all, S-400, which also perform a surface-to-surface missile function, are used almost every night when Russia bombards Ukraine.
“Ballistic missiles pose a new problem for Russia,” says Michael Bonert, an analyst at the California-based RAND Corporation.
A change in the tactics of Russian strikes.
While suicide drones and many cruise missiles are slow (often moving at only a few hundred kilometers per hour) and thus are easy to shoot down, ballistic missiles are fast. They all travel at least at the speed of sound. Heavier ballistic missiles can even be hypersonic. In other words, capable of reaching speeds five times the speed of sound.
The same air defenses that shoot down drones cannot stop ballistic missiles. Only the best air defense systems have a chance to hit a ballistic missile.
The main defense of Ukraine against Russian ballistic missiles is about six Patriot batteries of American manufacture. For Russia, the main defense against a future Ukrainian ballistic missile will be about 50 S-400 batteries.
With a clear understanding of the dynamics of deep strikes, the Russians are moving from easily destroyable drones to hard-to-destroy ballistic missiles. This is a serious problem for Ukrainian air defense forces, which are acutely lacking missiles for their Patriot batteries due to the Americans' reluctance to sell or offer missiles. The U.S. armed forces are currently dealing with their own air defense material shortages arising from the war with Iran.
During one of the waves of Russian attacks 6 in July, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 326 from 351 the drone “Geran” and 37 from 39 subsonic cruise missiles. But the Russians also launched six supersonic anti-ship missiles and 23 ballistic missiles. Each of them pierced the city, causing chaos in Kyiv. Then in the capital and Kyiv region at least 22 people were killed, another 90 were injured.
Ukraine already has ballistic missiles, they will be deployed soon.
Currently Ukraine cannot respond to such strikes in kind. Yes, Ukrainians can launch a large number of suicide drones. In fact – far more drones than Russia can launch. In addition, Ukraine has a reliable subsonic cruise missile, Fire Point FP-5. But Ukrainians do not yet have a fully battle-ready ballistic missile of the same class as Russia’s Iskanders or S-400 (for land-target strikes).
Nevertheless, everything will soon change. An obvious ballistic missile strike on Moscow in 1 July was only a prelude to a broader Ukrainian campaign.
Co-founder and chief engineer of Fire Point, Denys Shtilerman, released a video which, he says, shows testing of a new ballistic missile, likely FP-9 with a range of 855 kilometers. He also hinted that strikes into Russian territory might begin very soon.
Now this “very soon” has a concrete timeframe – autumn. Fire Point CEO Iryna Terekh told The War Zone that the company is now manufacturing a solid-fuel engine for FP-9 by casting, with a fuel load of 4,6 tons, more than four times the reserve of the smaller FP-7. All other missile components are already ready.
“That is the last touch in engine work, after which we will be ready to begin,” she said, noting that the first test launch is planned for autumn.
Shtilerman also told Dmitry Gordon in 27 July that attacks on Russia could begin as early as this autumn.
If FP-9 begin hitting Moscow, Russian commanders may lose the ability to use a significant number (or even all) of their S-400 systems for strikes on ground targets.
Every month the Russian industry produces about 40 missiles for S-400 batteries. If Ukraine can launch several dozen FP-9 or similar missiles at Russian targets every month, Russia will have to devote all of its S-400 air defense potential to quelling the bombardment, just to blunt it. After all, usually several Patriot-class or S-400 missiles are needed to hit one approaching ballistic missile.
“Russia will have to choose: either continue using S-400 as a strike weapon and accept that protected targets will be hit, or revert the system to its intended role of air defense,” says Michael Bonert.
If the Russians choose defense, they will have somewhat fewer ballistic missiles to strike Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. This should relieve some pressure on Ukrainian overburdened air defenses.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Нові українські балістичні ракети змусять Росію вибирати: бомбити Київ чи захищати Москву". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Channel 24.
