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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
A double sea blockade has put Ukraine in a critical position: Russian missiles and drones have paralyzed movement in the Black Sea, and Turkey has closed the straits, explaining that it is concerned about the safety of shipping. As a result, Ukraine’s economic losses are growing rapidly. Military man Ihor Lutsenko, in his Facebook blog, proposes a symmetric response — block the Baltic Sea for Russia.
“For Ukraine right now in the Black Sea — a double blockade.”
Russia blocked access to our ports with missiles and drones. Vessels are afraid to sail, because they are highly likely to be struck regardless of flag.
Passage through the Bosporus and Dardanelles is blocked by Turkey. The Turks explain that they are so concerned about the safety of shipping that they do not allow vessels to pass to Ukrainian (and Russian) ports.
The sultan is playing his game. And what about us?
Over 4 years we, unfortunately, did not particularly prepare for blocking the sea. In that time one could have modernized existing and even completed new rail lines to have more reserve capacity for export.
Ukraine has already started to incur large economic losses. There is nothing to export grain, and to import ore. Several ferrous metallurgy combines have already faltered. Well, perhaps the current government officials are unable and dim-witted. But the wealthy should have some sense?
For example, in Rinat Akhmetov, who during these years was an active investor in real estate on the Azure Coast.
Domestic entrepreneurs, owning enormous resources, sat for years watching Russia gradually build up its rocket and drone power. In recent months it has become obvious — the sea will be closed to us.
Did they hope that the heroism of the Ukrainian army and miraculous help from allies would solve all their problems?
But ships burn in the Odesa area, the straits are closed. At the borders are thousands of trucks in traffic jams, there are not enough roads, not enough railways. Such is the “surprise.”
What to do? I don’t see another path than to block Moscow’s access to the Baltic Sea.
First, we have grounds. 100% of our sea routes are blocked, and we have every moral right to respond to the aggressor symmetrically.
Second, there is a technical possibility. We regularly strike at the Caspian flotilla of Russians, flying long distances through Russian territory, bypassing air defense. The Baltic Sea is at about the same distance from Ukraine as the Caspian.
According to some calculations, restrictions on oil and gas revenues of Russia (more than 70% obtained through exports via the Baltic and the Black Sea) could triple the budget deficit to 5−6 percent of GDP, create a gap in the current account of the balance of payments exceeding 100 billion dollars (about another 5−6 percent of GDP), and lead to a decrease in Russia’s GDP by 9−10 percent in real terms.
And this is only for energy commodities; there is also container and bulk export and import via these routes.
A closed Black Sea, as it is now, is more advantageous for Russia than for Ukraine.
Closing the Baltic would turn everything upside down — Russia would suffer far more than we would. We must act,” — writes Lutsenko.
Recall that Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom Valeriy Zalyuzhny called the main condition for Ukraine’s survival in this war.
Materials published in the “Blogs” section reflect the author’s own opinion and may not coincide with the editors’ position.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Не бачу іншого шляху, як блокувати Балтику: Ігор Луценко про те, як Україні прорвати морську ізоляцію з боку рф і Туреччини". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Facts.
