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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
UNIAN, photo FB Igor Lutsenko, screenshot Black Sea found itself under a double blockade that causes Ukraine significant economic losses. Therefore, in response it is worth considering the issue of blocking Russia in the Baltic Sea.
This view was expressed by Igor Lutsenko, commander of drone operator units and founder of the Center for Aerospace Surveillance Support. According to him, Russia is hindering the movement of ships to Ukrainian ports with missile and drone strikes. Because of the threat of damage, shipowners are afraid to send ships to Ukrainian ports, as the occupiers strike ships regardless of their flag.
"The passage through the Bosporus and Dardanelles is blocked by Turkey. The Turks explain that they are so concerned about maritime safety that they do not permit ships to pass to Ukrainian (and Russian) ports. The sultanate is playing its game. And what about us?", wrote Lutsenko.
He believes that, during years of full-scale war, Ukraine has not prepared enough for the possibility of blocking sea routes. In particular, this refers to the need to develop alternative land routes for export and import.
"In that time it was possible to modernize existing and even build new railway routes to have more spare capacity for export", the military man stated.
According to him, due to problems with maritime logistics Ukraine is already suffering significant economic losses. In particular, there are difficulties with exporting grain and importing ore, and some mining-metallurgical enterprises have already stopped.
Lutsenko also stated that Ukrainian business, having substantial financial resources, should have invested in preparing alternative logistic routes in advance.
"In recent months it has been obvious – the sea will be closed to us."
Against this background, as Lutsenko believes, Ukraine should consider the possibility of creating problems for Russian maritime logistics.
"I do not see any other way than blocking Moscow’s Baltic Sea," he said.
According to Lutsenko, Ukraine has both moral and technical grounds for a symmetric response. He noted that Ukrainian forces have already struck Russian facilities at a considerable distance, including in the Caspian Sea region.
"We regularly strike the Caspian flotilla of Russians, flying long distances over Russian territory, circumventing air defenses. The Baltic Sea is located at about the same distance from Ukraine as the Caspian," the military man said.
He also referred to calculations suggesting that restrictions on Russian oil and gas export through the Baltic and Black Seas could significantly worsen the financierial situation of the Russian Federation. After all, limits on oil-and-gas revenues of Russia (more than 70% of which come from export via the Baltic and Black Seas) could triple the budget deficit to 6% of GDP, create a current account balance gap exceeding 100 billion dollars (about 5–6% of GDP), and lead to a reduction of Russia’s GDP by 9–10% in real terms, Lutsenko added.
"A closed Black Sea benefits the Russian Federation more than Ukraine. Closing the Baltic reverses everything — the Russian Federation will suffer much more than we will," Lutsenko believes.
"We must act," the military man summarized.
Situation in the Black Sea: news
As UNIAN reported, according to the spokesperson of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Dmitry Pletenchuk, civilian shipping in the Black Sea is currently blocked by Russia — no navigation from the port of Odesa is possible. Thus, the maritime corridor that owners of commercial ships used for a long time during the war has been suspended. As the military man explained, since around mid-July the Russians changed their drone tactics. They began to use ballistic munitions of the type "Banderol" periodically, or "Shahed-238" — drones with a jet propulsion.
Also, according to him, ships heading to Russia have accumulated in the Sea of Marmara, but for unknown reasons they changed course; however there is doubt that blocking passage through the Bosporus and Dardanelles was carried out by the Turkish side.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Росія заблокувала Чорне море: Луценко сказав, як повинна відповісти Україна". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: UNIAN.
