Did Not Return from the "Front." Where Yatsenyuk’s Associates Are "Scattering"

Did Not Return from the "Front." Where Yatsenyuk’s Associates Are "Scattering"

The party that triumphantly won the parliamentary elections in 2014 has written itself off

In his most recent lengthy interview, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov gave several interesting messages. He effectively admitted that the "People's Front" project laid itself on the "altar of reforms" and electorally one can put a cross over it. Now the main beneficiaries of this political force are choosing paths to continue their political careers. The unexpectedly high result that the "front" members showed in 2014, and the large move into government bodies, brought a great number of no-names into parliament — little-known people who were written into the "tail" of the party list to boost the numbers. But it is clear that most of the current 81 members of the faction have no chance of another term, and some of them no longer deny that this is their first and last term.

Paradoxically, understanding this forces the faction to hold together. It votes much more disciplinarily than coalition partners from the Petro Poroshenko Bloc. Despite the fact that the faction has several centers of influence whose interests sometimes do not coincide. Throughout its existence only one of the "front" ranks has left — Kyiv single-mandate millionaire MP Vyacheslav Konstantynovskyi, who later even refused his parliamentary mandate. Currently, Yevhen Deidei, close to Avakov, is drifting toward Oleh Lyashko, but he is in no hurry to leave the faction. Overall, the faction leadership manages to keep it intact. "Having your own opinion in our faction is like going against the wind," says one rank-and-file "fronter." "We can discuss things as much as we want, but in the end Yatsenyuk takes the floor and says — we vote this way. In the BPP it's somehow more democratic."

Back to Yulia

If the future of many rank-and-file "foot soldiers" of the "People's Front" is clear, the "heavy artillery" sees itself in near-power configurations even after 2019. Poroshenko is interested in keeping this group close and ideally obtaining its support and resources for the presidential elections. For this reason, permanent negotiations are underway about a large "party of power" that would include both Poroshenko’s people and the top of the "Front." Vladimir Groysman and Vitali Klitschko would also receive quotas there. Allegedly, during the negotiations even the name of the future "brotherly grave" was agreed — the European People's Party — by analogy with the large center-right parties of the Old World. But, according to Avakov, there are no agreements now and he is not a supporter of the united party option. Moreover, one of the key ministers said he "shudders" when he hears about a single presidential candidate and believes that Poroshenko should be just one of many candidates.

The "fronters'" logic can be understood: the presidential elections will precede the parliamentary ones and it is obvious that many will use the presidential race to prepare for the parliamentary race. Investing unreservedly in Poroshenko's victory is putting everything on him, and without guarantees of "return." "He thinks we should support him 'just like that,' and then we'll sort it out," complains one of the Front's leaders. "But that's not how it works — we've been through so many betrayals to believe these promises." The Front is confident that if Poroshenko wins he may, in a new capacity, revise previously reached agreements. If Poroshenko loses, then the format for running in the parliamentary elections is more logical for the current key players to determine in the interval between elections. Avakov remains fairly restrained in his statements. But some "fronters," for example, the single-mandate MP from Volyn Ihor Huz, do not hide that they are not going to work for Petro Oleksiyovych's second term, even if it is agreed at the leadership level. Huz is an example of those already looking for a new party roof. The deputy is close to the popular Volyn party "Ukrop." And Ihor Kolomoisky’s party will most likely work against Poroshenko.

"The People's Front is dispersing like the Jewish people once did across the world," draws a parallel political scientist Vadym Karasiov. "Part will go to Poroshenko, part to Tymoshenko, part to Lyashko, part to 'Ukrop.'" Avakov's interview can be seen as light blackmail of the president, who must provide guarantees to key players to preserve their positions after the presidential elections. But everyone understands that these guarantees will not be fulfilled because the new president will set the rules himself."

Yatsenyuk’s and Avakov’s contacts with Petro Poroshenko’s main rival Yulia Tymoshenko are not concealed, although the details of those meetings are secret. Yulia Volodymyrivna suffered quite painfully from the betrayal by former comrades from Batkivshchyna, but, as those close to Tymoshenko say — this is not a case of "all bridges being burned." That can only be said about the relationship with Oleksandr Turchynov, who grew closer to Poroshenko and is the main ideologue of a BPP–People's Front union, while his associate Viktoria Siumar openly worked on the presidential force's campaign. However, it is not entirely clear what Yatsenyuk himself can offer the leader of the presidential race besides his enormous anti-rating. Also in the Front’s reserves is Volodymyr Groysman, who is on much better terms with Yatsenyuk than with the president. If they successfully play on the ambitions of the prime minister, who believed in his own political star, and stimulate him to participate in the presidential race, even getting Poroshenko into the second round could become a monumental task.

Oleksandr Turchynov and Arseniy Yatsenyuk once left Yulia Tymoshenko. But they left differently

Exit paths

Another scenario and long-standing fixation of top "fronters," which they plan to use to prolong their time in power, is constitutional amendments that curtail the president's powers and shift the center of gravity to parliament. Poroshenko resists so far, but may become more conciliatory closer to the "X day" if he understands he has no chance of being re-elected.

Political technologist Andriy Zolotaryov believes that with constitutional changes Yatsenyuk and Co. are not so much counting on staying in power as they want to protect themselves from persecution by the next government.

"Everyone understands that whoever replaces Poroshenko will have no other political resource except the total jailing of predecessors," Zolotaryov believes. "And there are plenty of reasons — just look at Pashynskyi. During the honeymoon period of the new government this will provide it with legitimacy and support. And Yulia Volodymyrivna will not shy away from such sacred sacrifices. To protect themselves, they want changes to the structure of power. Then they could create a new project under new banners and somehow worm their way into the parliamentary elections. They have no long-term strategies — they just need to survive politically and otherwise."

Karasiov thinks that even if constitutional changes are passed through parliament, a new president will try to regain lost powers. "The dualism of power for us is that real powers rely not on constitutional norms but on administrative, force, and financial capabilities. Tymoshenko was able to pull the blanket over to herself in her time. So all talk about constitutional reform looks strange and there is no visible strategy. Such a strategy existed with Kuchma in 2004, when he was leaving and did not want Yushchenko to win. Then they changed the Constitution, but now we already have a semi-presidential republic anyway."

Not all leaders of the People's Front have decided whether to cover Petro Poroshenko’s rear

That the office and powers prescribed in the Constitution, while the person occupying that office determines everything, is demonstrated in Ukrainian realities by the same Avakov. A rank-and-file minister has enormous informal influence, including in areas that do not belong to his competence. But Arsen Borysovych will have such influence only under the current set of coordinates, which was formed almost perfectly for him. Perturbations associated with elections will, with high probability, turn his current brilliant carriage into a pumpkin. Poroshenko also understands this, and rumors say that, anticipating agreements between the "fronters" and Tymoshenko and Groysman, he blackmailed them with early elections in August.

Yatsenyuk’s associates are already trying to put safeguards in place that will remain after 2019. That is why the "five-year" post of ombudsperson for human rights was so principled for Lyudmyla Denisova. But if she got the job, the political fate of other colleagues who once happened to be united under the People's Front roof remains foggy. And at some point each of them will be forced to resolve the question of political survival on their own.

Pavlo Vuyets, Hlavkom