Back
Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Why did Prosecutor General Kravchenko still resign, and what conspiracy theories about NABU circulate within the government? In recent weeks the government has been rocked by recurring internal scandals: corruption in the Presidential Office and the prosecutor’s office, high-profile clashes between security services. The state machine is malfunctioning, a fact even recognized within the ruling team. Read about the consequences of Operation Carthage, the conspiracy theories surrounding NABU and SAP, the political trail of the scandals, the government’s reaction, and Vladimir Zelensky himself — in a report by RBC-Ukraine journalist Milan Lelich. Main points: Cracks along the vertical. Operation Carthage and Prosecutor General Kravchenko’s resignation, as well as Yermak’s earlier departure, showed that NABU and SAP can reach any top official. New episodes. Parliament and top officials fear new suspicions, and Bankova has not yet decided on a candidate for the new head of the OPG. Theory of a power takeover. In ruling circles there is fear of the growing influence of NABU and SAP, but they do not dare attack them openly because of the EU’s firm stance and a lack of instruments. Loss of control. Internal wars and scandals are increasingly destabilizing the system of power. Many potential pretexts for prosecution can be found by NABU investigators, so everyone lives in fear, an interlocutor in the political elite told RBC-Ukraine. Anticorruption agencies have indeed been unusually active over the past three weeks: just as the scandal around former Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Iryna Mudra was dying down, NABU came (in every sense of the word) for prosecutors. The result was Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko’s resignation announcement. Also read: Covering call centers and arrests at the Prosecutor General’s Office: all the details of Operation Carthage If you take a slightly broader time frame — the past year — NABU and SAP effectively managed to unseat the second most powerful person in the state, Andriy Yermak. There is nowhere higher in the literal sense — the incumbent president is legally protected from such investigations. Between the two high-profile NABU stories there was an equally loud scandal — clashes between the SBU and the Main Intelligence Directorate in the Bereznyaky neighborhood of Kyiv. And although all these episodes are not directly connected, it is impossible to ignore the feeling that the state machine has recently fallen into disarray. Even interlocutors inside the government admit this to RBC-Ukraine. Why Kravchenko left “I will eat by myself, and we will wash the dishes together — no, that cannot be,” an interlocutor in political circles described the situation around Prosecutor General Kravchenko. The implication: if he was involved in schemes shielding call centers, that was his own initiative and his problem, and he should not expect the entire state system to step in for him. Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko in the Verkhovna Rada (photo: Getty Images) Several RBC-Ukraine interlocutors say Kravchenko’s decision to actively defend himself after Operation Carthage became known and his unwillingness to resign were the prosecutor general’s own initiative. But a couple of days of his defense made it look like a defense on behalf of the entire vertical of power that was under attack, an informed interlocutor told the publication. That is what he was told at a Monday meeting on Bankova Street after which Kravchenko announced his resignation. Also read: The Carthage case: a relative and a trusted associate of Kropyva arrested Obviously, Volodymyr Zelensky had weighty arguments — according to RBC-Ukraine, the heads of NABU and SAP visited Bankova right before the president’s conversation with the prosecutor general. People close to Zelensky believe the anticorruption agencies had been aiming at Kravchenko since July last year, considering him one of the main architects of the then-attack on NABU and SAP. And they dismantled Carthage now because they were able to gather the necessary evidence base and package it presentably for the public. NABU and SAP are supposed to continue investigating call centers, where various law enforcement agencies are implicated: police, HBR, SBU, so to speak. Therefore, if it ends with only the prosecutor’s office and Kravchenko, it will have an obvious political tint. If they begin taking others as well, it means they really want to crush the entire call-center industry, an interlocutor in Zelensky’s team said. The same aim, he added, is behind the bill recently submitted by the president — to outlaw any activity connected to telephone fraudsters. And although from the outside this may have looked like a hasty crisis-response measure from Bankova, the interlocutor insists it was simply a coincidence. No candidates for prosecutor general yet Currently there is not even a long list of candidates who could replace Kravchenko as prosecutor general after the Rada is expected to dismiss him next week. Several government interlocutors told RBC-Ukraine that, having dealt with Carthage, Zelensky went on visits to Norway and Canada, and the issue was put on pause until his return. The prosecutor general’s resignation has also caused turmoil among MPs, say people in parliament. Deputies fear that the new prosecutor general might indiscriminately sign all the charges against them submitted by SAP. Since SAP essentially removed Kravchenko’s predecessor, the successor will not want to conflict with it. Thus MPs toy with the idea that the new prosecutor general should be one of their own — i.e., from among the deputies. But it is still unclear whether any deputies will volunteer and be suitable for the post. No one forced us to give up immunity in the past, which exists in all countries. But it was our promise; we did it, yet as a safeguard by consensus of all factions we made the prosecutor general the one who signs charges against MPs. Now the Soros-backed crowd promotes the idea that the head of SAP should sign them — and that would upset the balance, an interlocutor from Servant of the People explained. NABU conspiracy theories Since last year, since the start of “Mindichgate,” RBC-Ukraine has repeatedly heard from various government representatives a conspiracy theory that NABU and SAP are trying to seize the state or capture the deep state. In another phrasing — to become power without elections. The implication is that anticorruption agencies allegedly deliberately destabilize one state institution after another while, with the European Union’s support, promoting the idea of open competitions for more and more positions in the security bloc and beyond. Also read: Mindichgate, envelopes, the European Union. What is happening now around NABU and SAP This theory is voiced, incidentally, on published NABU recordings by former Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Mudra: “The Americans are making NABU people into a personnel reserve. And they already have (candidates) for all the agencies that will be part of the competitions. Customs have been taken away, BEB has been taken away, ARMA will be taken away now — NABU and SAP. In other words, they want to take control of all agencies. Now it’s the DBR,” Mudra reflects, also expressing the very popular accompanying theory about anticorruption activists being controlled by Americans. However, interlocutors in both Ukrainian government and diplomatic circles say that at least since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the degree of American control over anticorruption structures has been greatly exaggerated. Today their main patron is more likely Europeans. But European capitals, unlike Washington, operate differently — they are genuinely more concerned with institutional strength than with appointments to specific positions. Since last year’s attack on NABU and SAP, the fight against corruption and the independence of anticorruption agencies have become, for Europe, on par with support for Ukraine’s defense capability and economy. If you believe the theory about a power takeover, you can find many indirect confirmations. If they want to catch big corruption, why don’t they then look at defense procurement, where the biggest money is, or at customs? Why do their investigations appear during important international visits? Why do they often take cases that are minor in terms of budgetary losses but very high-profile? Why are they better at media production than at building a strong evidentiary base? a ruling elite interlocutor wonders. He immediately warns, however, that this is only theory and NABU and SAP’s actions may have no double meaning. High-profile cases may be needed to deter other potential corrupt actors from stealing if the risk is so dangerous. At the same time, NABU, SAP, and their activist allies regularly voice fears of a counterattack from the vertical of power — like last year or even harsher. RBC-Ukraine has repeatedly heard similar concerns from Western diplomats. The government, however, categorically rejects such a possibility. Among other reasons, no one now would risk launching such a hazardous operation as a forceful clampdown on anticorruption activists. The Rada certainly will not repeat last year’s moves with the bill without different options, a parliamentary interlocutor says. In addition, the position of Europeans plays a huge role. They have repeatedly warned that any artificial trouble for NABU and SAP would jeopardize not only Ukraine’s European integration but also financing — literally a question of survival for the country and for its government. System fatigue As Yanukovych used to say, we had that saying: Every vegetable has its shelf life. Everything has an expiration date. And a point of unfitness, one MP from Servant of the People philosophically comments on the unending flow of scandals in various state bodies. He means that the current government has clearly overstayed due to the impossibility of holding elections. And this leads to infrequent but painful mistakes — like last year’s attack on NABU and SAP or the recent dismissal of Mykhailo Fedorov, which prompted cardboard protests. Cardboard protests in Kyiv (photo: Getty Images) At the same time there is no clear way out of the situation. The idea of Fedorov seriously discussing the possibility of elections even under current conditions did not find broad public support. Also read: Fedorov’s false start or Bankova’s challenge: have elections become more realistic in the wake of NABU revelations All scandals in any state institutions naturally cast a shadow directly on the president. If he created a system in which he controls everything (and by tacit consensus everyone approved those rules), then he bears responsibility for any high-profile scandals. The president has developed a certain apathy toward such matters. Almost no one talks about serious issues, about the lack of money in the state budget, about problems with air defense — instead everyone bites at one another as if elections were tomorrow, a confidant in Zelensky’s circle says. But there will be no elections in any foreseeable future. However, new high-profile investigations by NABU and SAP that touch increasingly influential top managers close to Zelensky are quite possible. Q&A — Why was the prosecutor general’s resignation inevitable? Because Kravchenko’s defense after Operation Carthage looked like an attempt to cover the entire vertical of power. After talking with the president, he was forced to leave. — Who could become the new head of the OPG? There are currently no candidates. Deputies fear the new prosecutor general will more actively sign charges against them. — Will Bankova counterattack NABU and SAP? There will be no forceful pressure on anticorruption activists. Such a move would not pass the Rada, and European partners directly warn of risks to European integration and financing. — Why is the state apparatus in crisis? The system is overloaded by scandals and a war among security forces. Due to the lack of elections and continuous infighting, all responsibility for what happens falls personally on the president.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Падіння "Карфагену". Як корупція та скандали розхитують владу Зеленського". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: RBC-Ukraine.
