Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
The first panel discussion of the fourth season of the “New Country” project was devoted to the challenges Ukraine will face in the fall and winter.
How politicized is the fight against corruption and can NABU be trusted? Will there be enough votes in the Verkhovna Rada to pass the package of laws needed to receive financial assistance from partners? Which city is worst prepared for winter and why is restoring CHP plants not the best solution? What should be the priority in protecting critical infrastructure?
We spoke with:
Semen Kryvonos, Director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine;
Oleksandr Kornienko, First Deputy Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine;
Serhiy Sukhomlyn, former head of the State Agency for Restoration and Development of Infrastructure of Ukraine;
Dmytro Kozyatynskyi, veteran, one of the organizers of the Cardboard Maidan;
Ihor Liski, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of EFI Group (with which LB.ua implements “New Country”).
We spoke with:
Semen Kryvonos, Director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine;
Semen Kryvonos
Oleksandr Kornienko, First Deputy Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine;
Oleksandr Kornienko
Serhiy Sukhomlyn, former head of the State Agency for Restoration and Development of Infrastructure of Ukraine;
Serhiy Sukhomlyn
Dmytro Kozyatynskyi, veteran, one of the organizers of the “Cardboard Maidan”
Dmytro Kozyatynskyi
Ihor Liski, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of EFI Group (with which LB.ua jointly implements “New Country”).
Ihor Liski
Semen Kryvonos commented on the claim that the Bureau’s investigations are politicized — in his view, some individuals use that assertion as a way to shield themselves from criminal prosecution. He emphasized: if NABU’s investigations have political consequences, that does not mean the investigations themselves are politically motivated.
The NABU director explained why officials who have not yet been charged may be mentioned in the materials of high-profile investigations: NABU publishes declassified materials of covert investigative actions that are not state secrets with the permission of the detective and the prosecutor — and the Bureau has used this approach before, prior to the recent prominent cases.
Semen Kryvonos, Director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine
“The exposures of the last one and a half years really attract significant public interest, given the weight, importance of certain suspects, and the scale of the committed corruption crimes. Because of this, it undoubtedly draws so much attention,” he explained, adding that the Bureau changed priorities and became more effective at obtaining evidence.
Commenting on the investigation materials “Forest Gump” and “Carthage,” which mention people identified as specific officials of the Office of the President and the Office of the Prosecutor General, Kryvonos explained that a mere mention in the materials does not mean someone has suspect status.
“We don’t record tapes on reels. We have modern equipment. ‘Tapes’ is a media catchphrase. We have no tapes. These are materials of covert investigative activities,” he said.
Kryvonos stressed that NABU does not declare someone guilty before a final court decision: “We do not announce anyone’s surname before the final court verdict. If we serve a notice, we collect enough evidence to inform a person of suspicion; we communicate about their status, their role in a given crime.”
Semen Kryvonos, Director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine
If a person is not named, it means either sufficient evidence has not yet been gathered and the investigation is ongoing, or that person is not involved in the case, he noted, adding that corrupt officials should not be quietly dismissed: publicizing investigations should help prevent further crimes by officials.
Regarding the deadlines for completing the pre-trial investigation in the “Midas” case (among the suspects are businessman Tymur Mindich and former officials Herman Galushchenko and Oleksii Chernyshov), Kryvonos said it should conclude in October–November — roughly a year after the first suspicions, within the statutory time limits.
After the parties review the materials, the case is planned to be sent to the High Anti-Corruption Court.
The NABU director also noted that Ukraine needs to adopt bills to strengthen the fight against corruption — including creating an independent expert institution for NABU and strengthening the procedural capacity of SAP.
These changes are set out in a ten-point plan of priority reforms and the Ukraine Facility program, and the effectiveness of NABU, SAP and the High Anti-Corruption Court depends directly on them.
“There are no red lines that we, while investigating our so-called crimes, must or must not cross. The only red line is the law. If we do not violate the law, if the law obliges us to investigate a corruption crime — we must do it. There are no indulgences or mitigating circumstances,” Kryvonos said, adding that the legislature itself classified theft during martial law as a more severe crime: certain articles of the Criminal Code provide enhanced liability for such crimes.
Ihor Liski, Serhiy Sukhomlyn, Dmytro Kozyatynskyi, Oleksandr Kornienko, Semen Kryvonos and Sonya Koshkina
Oleksandr Kornienko said that for 75% of the bills needed to receive further financial assistance from international partners, there are votes in the Verkhovna Rada. Finding support for the remaining 25% may be more difficult.
He said different funding amounts are tied to different bill packages: significant funds are allocated for passing the Labor Code, and about one billion hryvnias Ukraine should receive after passing the anti-corruption bill.
“I would not dramatize about votes to the point of saying there are none. We analyzed the whole package with the government; some of the figures are fantastic. 27 bills need to be submitted and 16 written. This is all the money the country has. If we do not vote for all this, we will have no money other than our taxes. And taxes go to the army, so we will have to take from those taxes and there will be shortages for the army or salaries for public-sector workers first,” he said.
Oleksandr Kornienko, First Deputy Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
Kornienko added that after analyzing the entire package, about 75% of the bills are “votable,” but their adoption requires time and agreements on final wording.
Regarding contentious bills, including taxation of postal shipments, discussions are ongoing: business representatives opposing the change were invited to a faction meeting, arguing it could also hurt Ukrainian entrepreneurs.
“There is one macro-finance package where the failure of even one law would mean the failure of all. That includes the bill to cancel preferential parcel customs clearance,” Kornienko said.
Asked how many Servant of the People MPs consistently attend sessions and take part in votes, Kornienko replied that 180 is an optimistic estimate.
Serhiy Sukhomlyn believes Kyiv could turn out to be the least prepared for the autumn-winter season. He said that back in February, when the Resilience Plans were being developed, the capital had the lowest initial readiness: Kharkiv — 51%, Chernihiv — 24%, Kyiv — only 1,5%. “I can’t say now,” he noted, answering about Kyiv’s current readiness level.
Sukhomlyn cited Kharkiv as an example, which in winter, after Russian attacks, managed in four hours to switch the city and restore heat supply. “Today Kyiv has the most difficult situation,” he said.
Serhiy Sukhomlyn, former head of the State Agency for Restoration and Development of Infrastructure of Ukraine
He does not share the view that large CHP plants should be restored — in his opinion, these are large targets that can be destroyed by Russian strikes; instead the city needs a decentralized heating system. “I would install semi-underground boiler houses that we are building today: from 40 MW — the smallest, to 120 MW — the largest,” Sukhomlyn said, adding that burying such facilities reduces the risk of their being hit, four years were enough to create such a system, and this model is financially more advantageous. He said Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv and Kryvyi Rih have fairly good preparedness for winter challenges.
The protection of Kyiv’s electrical substations has already been carried out to approximately 80%.
Work began in early May and is planned to be completed by the end of the month. The Agency is also building protection for large substations: whereas such facilities used to be built in about two years, now — roughly half a year, and the work is planned to be finished in the fall.
In April construction began on about 130 protective objects for infrastructure in various regions. According to Sukhomlyn, Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv are under daily strikes, but thanks to protection they retain light and water; a large part of the work concerns transformer protection.
Within the Resilience Plans, four main work directions were identified, including development of distributed generation, provision of sufficient numbers of generators, and physical protection of facilities. “Today there are about 2000 objects in the country: construction began, cogeneration units are being connected, new block-modular boiler houses are being installed, new boiler houses are being built. This is not a small number,” Sukhomlyn said. The average level of implementation of the Resilience Plans is currently about 50% — he said this is a good indicator, since a significant number of regions previously had no relevant experience.
Serhiy Sukhomlyn, former head of the State Agency for Restoration and Development of Infrastructure of Ukraine (center)
The government instructed the Agency to build several dozen facilities, roughly the same number is being built by the city. In total, Kyiv plans to create 520 MW of heat supply capacity — some of it will operate on CHP-5 and CHP-4 and will supply Rusanivka and Berezniaky in case of emergencies. “They are being built semi-underground, with a second level of protection,” Sukhomlyn said, adding that these objects are planned to be completed approximately in December. “It’s hard to say what this heating season will be like. If it weren’t for this protection, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kharkiv would already be without light, water, nothing,” he added.
Only in Zaporizhzhia 15 protective objects were built. At the same time Russia is changing attack tactics and using loitering munitions with different power than those for which the defenses were originally designed. According to Sukhomlyn, the enemy recently struck the 330-th transformer in one city, but the protection held — without it the city could have been left without power.
Sukhomlyn named water facilities as the main priority for infrastructure protection, since they determine not only water supply but also cities’ heat supply. He noted that fully protecting treatment facilities is impossible, but key elements can be secured with a second level of protection — such solutions are already used in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro and other cities.
One of the biggest risks is the destruction of a sewage pumping station: if it is hit, sewage could flow into the Dnipro, causing an environmental catastrophe, and damage to the station could make it necessary to turn off water supply for an entire city, which would also affect heat supply. “So electricity is very important first of all, but water is number one today for all Ukrainian cities, especially large ones like Kyiv,” he said, adding that within the Resilience Plans they are actively working on protecting water facilities, including developing mobile water supply stations.
Ihor Liski, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of EFI Group
Ihor Liski believes that next year could be one of the toughest for Ukraine, while also convinced that difficult times will come for Russia as well.
“I assess that this will be the toughest year, unless by some miracle in October we ‘sign’ this window of opportunity. I believe tough years will come for Russia, no matter what anyone says,” he said.
He said from an economic perspective the biggest concerns are logistics and the lack of port shipments: the resilience and flexibility of Ukrainian business largely depend on the ability to use sea routes.
“If Ukraine becomes a country without a sea, it completely changes logistics. Many industries relied on transport by sea,” Liski explained, stressing that losing access to the Black Sea would have not only military but serious economic consequences for Ukraine.
“If Ukraine is cut off from the sea — and this is, by the way, one of the reasons we must fight, because Putin wanted to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson — this primarily economically kills the country,” he said, adding that without sea routes Ukraine will find it much harder to export grain, steel, ore, oil and other goods, as well as import fertilizers, containers and equipment.
The second challenge Liski named is warehouse and transport logistics: Ukraine will have to significantly reorganize its system of supply, storage and transportation of goods and services. “This is financially very painful, but I am sure Ukrainian business will cope,” he said.
Liski also drew attention to Ukrainian retail, which he believes previously operated at a fairly high level; now this system is breaking down due to the war, but he thinks Ukraine can withstand it. “The main thing here is not to interfere, but to help where possible,” he emphasized.
Liski said the government should consider creating an insurance system — this will make goods and services more expensive for consumers, but such a scenario is less painful than closed ports and subsequent destruction of logistics. “Yes, it will be more expensive — ultimately the consumer will pay for everything, meaning you and me. But everyone understands what we are paying for. It’s a much less painful scenario than closed ports and ruined logistics,” he explained.
Ihor Liski, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of EFI Group, with which LB.ua implements the ‘New Country’ project
The third challenge Liski named was energy and infrastructure, reminding that Russia has repeatedly stated its intention to strike Ukraine’s energy system. At the same time he expressed hope for a political decision to strengthen interception of ballistic missiles: Russia’s use of a large number of such missiles is itself costly. “If two ‘Iskanders’ missed, launching another two or four is already painful for Russia,” he said. In Liski’s view, if Ukraine has sufficient capabilities to counter ballistic strikes, the Russian strategy of mass infrastructure destruction will not become critical.
Liski called the loss of trust within society the main threat to Ukraine, not economic or infrastructure problems. “I worry about something else — our trust within society. The only thing that can defeat us is ourselves: through despair, lack of trust in the authorities and, as a result, the state. That is the main problem,” he emphasized.
Liski also criticized some officials, including prosecutors, who he said focus on their own wellbeing during the war. “Many of our officials, including prosecutors, forget there is a war in the country and worry about clothes, apartments, the wellbeing of their household, not understanding that the stakes are entirely different,” Liski said, stressing that in case of defeat in the war Ukraine would lose not only the chance to rebuild but the state itself.
“If we lose, there will be nothing — no reconstruction, no furs, no museums, no country,” he said. In his view, the scale of the existential threat is still insufficiently understood by officials:
“I would send all those in power to the front for at least two to three weeks so they could look people in the eye and understand: if those are not ‘hung’, others will come and ‘hang’ these,” Liski concluded.
Dmytro Kozyatynskyi, veteran, one of the organizers of the Cardboard Maidan
Dmytro Kozyatynskyi said protests should be aimed primarily at protecting institutions. He noted that last year showed Ukrainian civil society is mature enough to take to the streets specifically for the sake of institutions. Speaking about this year’s “Cardboard Maidan,” Kozyatynskyi said that despite its strong connection to a specific personality, he considers the protest successful: “We achieved Syrskyi’s resignation. Before the protest no one even dreamed Syrskyi would be removed, and Drapaty would be appointed. That was a huge victory.”
At the same time, Kozyatynskyi emphasized that dialogue between the authorities and society has not yet been established: “The absence of communication was the primary reason for these protests. If the president or someone from the Office of the President had properly explained why the Sviridenko government and the defense minister were resigning, most likely there would have been no protests,” he explained.
In his view, the Office of the President has chosen a strategy of ignoring protesters — a tactic that may work in the short term but is dangerous in the long term, especially during a full-scale war. “If people are ignored, they will eventually disperse, but the frustration and anger will not disappear. Under no circumstances should the street change the commander-in-chief. The appointment of Drapaty was the president’s decision.” He added that many problems and conflicts had accumulated around Syrskyi, including with Fedorov, which could no longer be ignored.
Kozyatynskyi called the anti-corruption vertical and the street elements of a system of checks and balances: “Given certain political impotence of the Verkhovna Rada and ministers, the street is one of our few levers of influence. So far we have managed to prevent its discreditation.”
Dmytro Kozyatynskyi, veteran, one of the organizers of the Cardboard Maidan (center)
The moderator of the discussion, LB.ua Editor-in-Chief Sonya Koshkina
marketer Olena Kalenska
Yuliia Pliieva, founder of Apple Consulting, lecturer at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School
Tetiana Abramova, CEO of RITO Group
Deputy Editor-in-Chief of LB.ua Marina Syhaivska
MP Yaroslav Zhelezniak
Chair of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Tax and Customs Policy Nina Yuzhanina
Archimandrite Kyrylo Hovorun, Doctor of Philosophy, Director of the Gaffington Institute
Kostiantyn Kharakoz, judge of the Commercial Court of Donetsk region, Board Member of the Association for the Development of Judicial Self-Government of Ukraine
Journalist Khrystyna Berdynskykh
Mykhailo Radutskyi, Chair of the Committee on National Health, Medical Care and Medical Insurance in the Verkhovna Rada
Nataliia Kryvda, Chair of the Supervisory Board of the Ukrainian Cultural Foundation
Editor-in-Chief of LB.ua Sonya Koshkina
Vice-Rector of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Kseniia Smyrnova
People’s Deputy Yaroslava Yurchyshyn
Tymofii Mylovanov, President of Kyiv School of Economics
Iryna Herasymova, journalist of channel 5
Yuliia Savostina, cultural manager, leader of the Made in Ukraine project
Iryna Zolotarevych, professional scaling trainer, coach MCC ICF
Marketing Director of LB.ua Liudmyla Boichenko
Vyacheslav Riabichev, lecturer at the Institute of Journalism of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv.
Ihor Zhdanov, former Minister of Youth and Sports of Ukraine
Liudmyla Dolhonovska, communications specialist, PR & GR consultant
Yaroslava Yurchyshyn and Iryna Herasymova
Semen Kryvonos and LB.ua journalist Anzhelika Syzonenko
Tymofii Mylovanov (left) and Dmytro Kozyatynskyi (right)
Iryna Andreitsev, Liudmyla Boichenko and Khrystyna Berdynskykh (right)
Semen Kryvonos and Khrystyna Berdynskykh
Tymofii Mylovanov, Sonya Koshkina and Semen Kryvonos
Editor-in-Chief of LB.ua Sonya Koshkina
Ihor Liski and Sonya Koshkina
Ihor Liski, Serhiy Sukhomlyn, Dmytro Kozyatynskyi, Sonya Koshkina, Oleksandr Kornienko, Semen Kryvonos (right)
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