Will Kryvetskyi and Palytsia’s project destroy “European Solidarity”?

Last year media reports circulated that the main sponsor of VO Svoboda, Ihor Kryvetskyi, and longtime partner of oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi, MP Ihor Palytsia, who founded the Za Maybutnye party, are creating a new political party. The news was very unexpected, as was the Kryvetskyi–Palytsia alliance.

The political force is likely aimed at uniting the elites of the south and northwest with centers in Lviv and Lutsk, but it will extend across eight oblasts of Ukraine, including Khmelnytskyi. At the same time regional projects of Za Maybutnye, VO Svoboda and its satellite “Symchyshyn’s Team,” which is the leadership party of Svoboda member Oleksandr Symchyshyn, will be rolled back. This will be another confirmation of the death of “political regionalism” in Ukraine. What preceded the idea of cooperation between the two regional leaders in the political field? The construction of a cottage settlement in Rakhiv Raion, Zakarpattia Oblast. Near Bukovel, which has belonged since 2021 to Palytsia’s son Zakhar, a complex called Kryla Karpaty is planned to be built, its financing will cost 200 million euros. The complex includes the opportunity to purchase housing for passive income. But we need to look at the situation more broadly. I. Kryvetskyi has become an active presence in the media: he visited the “United Marathon,” the ICTV channel, the Pryamyi channel associated with Petro Poroshenko, and the pro-Svoboda resource NTA channel, the program “Velykyi Lviv Speaks.” According to Armed Forces veteran and activist Ivan Sprynskyi, “the channel was bought together with I. Palytsia.” This is how he is increasing his presence in the information field ahead of the elections. Former head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak is directly interested in this. I. Palytsia, after the final downfall of I. Kolomoyskyi, is forced to look for an ally and together with his circle, which includes the Volyn group of MPs (Ihor Huz, Iryna Kostankevych, “regional” Stepan Ivakhiv of Za Maybutnye (until 2018 he was the main opponent of I. Palytsia), as well as Vyacheslav Rublyov from Servant of the People) are forced to seek new allies. Along with I. Palytsia, Galician allies will jump onto the new political boat — Lviv resident Taras Batenko and former Bukovel owner Oleksandr Shevchenko, who is head of the Za Maybutnye faction in the Ivano-Frankivsk Regional Council. Recently, in one of our articles examining the resignation of Lutsk mayor I. Polishchuk, we suggested that part of the team might emigrate to Yulia Tymoshenko’s party. That scenario remains relevant, but everything could change. Also, agrarian MP Serhii Labaziuk, who heads the Khmelnytskyi organization of Za Maybutnye, and former Svoboda member Serhii Rudyk, who is currently in military service, may join Kryvetskyi’s party. As for the “regional” Ivan Chaikovskyi from 165 constituency in Buchach, Ternopil Oblast, who is also part of the Za Maybutnye group, it is more likely that he together with his colleagues Viktor Myalyk from 155 constituency in Sarny, Rivne Oblast, Ihor Molotok from Sumy region, who was also a “regional,” Petro Pylypyshyn from 17 constituency in Vinnytsia Oblast, Anatolii Urbanskyi, Oleksandr Hereha and Yurii Shapovalov will move to VO Batkivshchyna of Yulia Tymoshenko. Regionals Anton Yatsenko and the aforementioned Stepan Ivakhiv, together with two former servants Anna Skorokhod and Bohdan Torochtii, will move to Dmytro Razumkov’s “Smart Politics.” Who will represent Ihor Kryvetskyi’s side? Primarily the mayors of Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk — Oleksandr Symchyshyn, Serhii Nadal and Ruslan Martyniuk — as well as all representatives of the western Ukrainian branches of VO Svoboda. All party members of the Western region, including Lviv City Council deputy Ruslan Koshulynskyi, Lviv City Council secretary Markian Lopachak, Andrii Tiahnybok — who is the brother of party leader Oleh Tiahnybok. Kryvetskyi, Koshulynskyi and Tiahnybok are one team that has no conflicts. Among the Svoboda leadership there will be no objections. The entire political council will move into the new project along with their sponsor Ihor Kryvetskyi, who in fact is the main person in the party after O. Tiahnybok. The only one who might leave the political force and politics altogether is actor and former MP of the VII convocation Bohdan Benyuk, who is deputy head for international affairs.

Also joining I. Kryvetskyi’s sphere of influence will be the parties Narodnyi Rukh Ukrainy, Varta, Civic Position, Ukrainian Galician Party and Vitali Klitschko’s UDAR in Lviv Oblast, Platforma Hromad in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, as well as a number of other municipal projects in Ternopil, Zakarpattia and Chernivtsi oblasts. The project will cover Western and Central Ukraine for a reason. Voters in the West and Center have always shown high turnout. Why is this project a threat to European Solidarity? Petro Poroshenko’s party, although it still has a chance to enter the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, is experiencing intra-party turbulence. Conflict among party members does not help improve ratings. At the moment it stands at 7,5 percent. The party “Ukraine Above All!” could make European Solidarity a politically non-passing force. Party members from western Ukraine will for the most part move to the new political force. Elites will be interested in developing a new political project aimed at parliamentary and local elections. It will be a “liquid resource” for the Kryvetskyi and Palytsia groups, and attractive for representatives of the so-called “Lviv group” from the European Solidarity faction. We are talking about MPs Mykola Kniazhytskyi, Mykola Velychkovych, Andrii Levus, Oleh Siniutka, Volodymyr Viatrovych and Mykhailo Bondar. The departure of this group from P. Poroshenko’s party will significantly affect ES’s rating. In particular, the informal controller of the Lviv regional organization of ES, the “ex-regional” Hryhorii Kozlovskyi, who together with I. Kryvetskyi forms one sphere of influence in Lviv, will join the party. It is not excluded that the new project will involve Arsenii Yatseniuk’s influence groups led by Maksym Burbak and Oleksii Kaspruk, as well as the influence group of oligarch Kostyantyn Zhevago from Poltava Oblast. Recall that the latter is currently in France. This year he was detained by French law enforcement at the request of the State Bureau of Investigation in a case concerning the withdrawal of depositor funds from the bank Finance and Credit. This led to the institution’s bankruptcy and losses of 46 billion hryvnias. Last year British justice also decided to impose an arrest on the bank assets of K. Zhevago. K. Zhevago himself considers this persecution by the authorities. The logical question: if the party “Ukraine Above All!” is a Bankova project, then how could oligarch Zhevago and his circle be part of it? The answer is obvious: a political arrangement with Bankova. Zhevago is not a strong or threatening opponent of the current authorities unlike P. Poroshenko or I. Kolomoyskyi. Will the project be nationwide? Undoubtedly yes, because most center-right forces, except European Solidarity, long ago became regional. For now, P. Poroshenko remains the main opponent of Kryvetskyi–Palytsia. The project will have media support from NTA in Lviv, Avers in Lutsk and Rivne1 in Rivne. Support from Espreso channel is also not excluded. For now it acts as a situational media ally of P. Poroshenko’s party. As for gaining slots on national channels, while the “United News” marathon continues, it is hard to make predictions, but the possibility exists. Thus, one can cautiously assume that the new political formation will include groups of I. Kolomoyskyi led by I. Palytsia, I. Kryvetskyi’s group, Arsenii Yatseniuk’s groups, as well as K. Zhevago. These groups will be able to occupy ES’s niche and partially siphon off pro-Ukrainian electorate from V. Zelenskyi. The resource will be party members of municipal projects, as well as a large share of representatives of European Solidarity from 12 oblasts of Ukraine. ES party members will become an auxiliary resource for an alternative center-right movement that will replace P. Poroshenko in the party pentagon of the postwar reality. The party could act as an absorber of regional forces in the center and west, and will be capable of mobilizing center-right voters disillusioned with the current national-democratic forces. Everything will depend on the agreements between influence groups in the regions, media support, and the budget that will fill the coffers of the unborn political force.