The end of the coalition. Long live the new coalition?

The end of the coalition. Long live the new coalition?

Batkivshchyna and Samopomich have left the "European Ukraine" coalition.

Together with the People's Front and the Petro Poroshenko Bloc it numbered 262 MPs.

Now the coalition has only 217 deputies.

"From this moment the countdown of 30 days to form a new coalition begins," Yulia Tymoshenko announced from the Rada podium.

The PPB and NF need a new political partner, which will likely be the Radical Party of Lyashko, which left the majority in the fall.

Sources at Bankova speaking to Ukrayinska Pravda say Lyashko has already held several meetings with Yatsenyuk and Turchynov about the possibility of returning to the coalition.

"The Radical Party is in opposition to the current authorities. Full stop," Radical leader Oleh Lyashko told journalists in the corridors. He added that the faction proposes to elect a new coalition, a new government, and a plan of action.

In any case — this is a matter of bargaining and big appetites. Lyashko's faction unexpectedly became the swing vote for Yatsenyuk and Poroshenko and can now gain substantial dividends if it agrees to return to the majority.

We developed an interactive coalition builder where deputies are divided not only by factions but also into separate influence groups within factions (the largest factions — People's Front, Petro Poroshenko Bloc and Opposition Bloc — are broken into groups — UP).

People's Front

Let's start with the People's Front. Arseniy Yatsenyuk's group is the largest in the faction, but the prime minister does not have a monopoly.

Separately noteworthy is the group of MPs oriented toward Yatsenyuk's closest friend and ally, Justice Minister Pavlo Petrenko.

Mostly these are people who were his advisers and came with Petrenko to work in the Ministry of Justice in 2014, and then entered parliament on the People's Front lists.

Mykola Martynenko, who is a subject of a criminal case in Switzerland, is the real gray cardinal of the People's Front. Close to him are deputies from the second part of the list, as well as the "Deputy Control" groups.

For example, Maksym Polyakov, Dmytro Stetsenko, Hennadiy Kryvosheya and others.

There are MPs in the NF loyal to Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. Among them are not only his old friend and adviser Anton Herashchenko, but also businessman Ihor Kotvytskyi, who is accused of moving funds out of Ukraine to a Panamanian company.

A rather numerous group belongs to Oleksandr Turchynov. Mostly these are old trusted cadres with whom Turchynov worked back in Batkivshchyna and who moved to the People's Front with him.

The People's Front also has a so-called business quota. "Viktor Pinchuk (owner of the Interpipe corporation — UP) had the opportunity, in exchange for advertising the NF on the holding's channels, to propose two people for the list," one Verkhovna Rada deputy told UP.

PPB

The PPB faction is mostly oriented toward the president, but there are several influence groups there as well.

Separately one can single out the Kononenko group, which includes about two dozen MPs (but because of their closeness to Poroshenko they are all credited to the latter) and Serhiy Lyovochkin's group.

Another fairly large grouping is the agro-lobby, which includes deputies Yuriy Harbuz, Valeriy Davydenko, Vadym Denysenko, Leonid Kozachenko, Anatoliy Kuzmenko.

Its informal leaders are billionaires Oleh Bakhmatyuk and Yuriy Kosyuk.

Although even in the president's faction there is internal opposition. First and foremost, this is the so-called anti-corruption platform created by young deputies who disagree with some faction members running corrupt processes in the country.

Others

Other factions are fairly monolithic, although they too have various business groups.

Thus, the Opposition Bloc consists of two influence groups — Dmytro Firtash and Serhiy Lyovochkin — as well as Rinat Akhmetov, who supports Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Theoretically, this group could also join the coalition if Lyashko's Radical Party does not want to enter the same river a second time.

UP