Will the Elections Change the Balance of Power in the Largest Cities?

Will the elections change the balance of power in the largest cities?

What are the chances of the political forces in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk?

Traditionally, local elections have less political significance than parliamentary ones. However, they provide a springboard for electoral advances and opportunities for further accumulation of votes.

INSIDER decided to find out how preparations for the elections are progressing in the 5 main and electorally important cities: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk, and what the chances are for the main political players there.

Kyiv

It seems the intrigue over whether BPP will support Klitschko was greater than whether the incumbent mayor will keep his seat.

"To say that Klitschko has no competitors is an understatement. None of those who will compete for the mayor's seat will be able to gain the necessary number of votes to win in the 2 round. Overall, Kyiv residents are not very satisfied with the current authorities, but, as usual, they are left without a choice," says one Kyiv City Council deputy on condition of anonymity.

Another colleague shared internal polling he commissioned. According to him, Klitschko currently has 23,8% of all respondents, Boryslav Bereza – 8,9%, Volodymyr Bondarenko – only 2%. Although potentially the representative of Batkivshchyna would be supported by 10%. The Samopomich candidate Serhiy Husovskyi so far also has no more than 2%.

The deputy believes that if Batkivshchyna and Samopomich nominated strong candidates, the situation for the mayor would become much more complicated.

Despite the merger of UDAR and BPP into a single political force, Klitschko avoided political positioning on his billboards and emphasizes his managerial work in the city.

Opora activists note an early start to the advertising campaign by some political forces. According to Opora’s Kyiv coordinator Andriy Savchuk, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, Batkivshchyna and the Movement for Reforms stood out for such actions. The same applies to mayoral candidates.

In addition, Opora coordinators recorded many charitable actions in schools up to 1 September. Various gifts were distributed under this pretext, and repairs of premises were carried out. Activists also recorded the opening of children's playgrounds in various districts of the capital with support from potential candidates.

According to the same deputy's own polling, BPP now has 25%, Samopomich – 15,4%, Batkivshchyna – 12%.

photo from Klitschko's website

The situation in Kyiv region is somewhat different. The main players here are named as BPP, Batkivshchyna, Svoboda and the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko. The region also expects a good result for the Our Land party. In addition, unlike the capital itself, there are several local projects, for example New Faces, headed by Irpin mayor Volodymyr Karyuk.

Kharkiv

Election observers in Kharkiv and the region note that the parties of the parliamentary coalition have significantly lowered their ratings. The level of trust among residents has fallen most for Petro Poroshenko's party, the People's Front and Batkivshchyna.

However, Kharkiv Opora coordinator Viktoriya Shevchuk noted that this concerns only general trends and moods, not specific figures.

"This year's campaign is very short, and sociological surveys were conducted back in early summer, and official registration has not yet taken place. Nevertheless, I can already state that Kharkiv residents, both city and region, are disappointed in the pro-government factions," she said.

An interesting fact is that alongside the decline in support for BPP and NF, the level of trust in Samopomich has grown.

"This party preserved a good reputation over the year of work and significantly raised its rating. Moreover, these are relatively new faces, which is always a plus in difficult economic times," Viktoriya Shevchuk noted.

The rating of the Opposition Bloc has also decreased (compared to the previous elections), although the party continues to occupy leading positions. As for the Radical Party, Kharkivshchyna has never been an electoral field for this political force, so its rating remains quite low.

"Overall, Kharkiv residents do not support all those who have been or are in power, but the relatively short election period 2015 of the year does not allow new faces to break through. And many political forces and politicians have taken advantage of this," Viktoriya Shevchuk said.

As an example, the Opora representative cited incumbent mayor Hennadiy Kernes, whose competitors are little known and therefore have no chance, despite the fact that support for Kernes himself has fallen significantly. For example, Anatoliy Rodzynsky is a city council deputy who ran for parliament from BPP, Yuriy Sapronov is a former deputy head of the regional state administration, and Oleksandr Feldman is the main competitor.

Photo ZN.UA

City council deputy Dmytro Marinin, who is linked to Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, and Svoboda member Ihor Shvaika announced their intention to compete for the mayor's seat. However, the latter's participation remains in question due to the events near the parliament on 31 August.

Another opponent is former Kharkiv governor Ihor Baluta, who will likely run from the Volunteer Party of Ukraine. This candidate could potentially gain decent support, despite not being particularly notable as governor. His name is associated with the successful suppression of the nascent separatist movement in Kharkiv in 2014. Against the backdrop of city authorities' inaction, the governor gained a fairly positive image among pro-Ukrainian forces.

The Petro Poroshenko party, which could potentially nominate a strong opponent, delayed presenting a candidate for a long time. Only a few days ago they presented Oleksandr Davtyan — a Kharkiv businessman and politician, advisor to the head of the Presidential Administration, president of the Investment Group DAD.

Interestingly, the likely BPP candidate was supposed to be the head of the regional BPP organization and head of the Kharkiv regional state administration, Ihor Raynin.

That Kharkiv, like Kyiv, will remain with an unchanged leader is also indicated by sociological surveys: Hennadiy Kernes is trusted by 55,1% of respondents, Oleksandr Feldman 50,4%, Kharkiv region governor Ihor Raynin − 19,7% support.

However, as one well-known politician noted, Kernes will be only a nominal mayor due to very poor health, so attention should be paid to his deputies, who will actually run the city.

Regarding political forces, the leader remains the Opposition Bloc, which can count on the support of 24,1% of Kharkiv residents, Samopomich − 6,2%, Left Bloc − 4,6%, Batkivshchyna − 4,2%, Solidarity – BPP − 4,1%, People's Control − 3,9% and Our Land − 3,4%.

Lviv

Observers believe that, like Kyiv, Lviv is unlikely to change its mayor.

According to Lviv Opora analyst Oleksandr Neberikut, only the city council will change significantly in the region.

"In the Lviv city council, Samopomich and BPP have a chance to become leaders, unlike the previous elections when the People's Front won. It also remains obvious that the incumbent Lviv mayor Andriy Sadovyi has not been found any bright competitors, that is, a politician who could compete with him in the elections," he said.

photo dyvys.info

Although Lviv has been covered with Igor Vasiunyk's billboards for a month, the mayor will be troubled more by Dmytro Dobrodomov and his People's Control. The latter operate on the same scheme that Samopomich used at the start of its activity.

"For the president, Samopomich is like a bone in the throat. Its popularity in Lviv is obvious, and therefore the Presidential Administration is doing everything possible to pull votes away from the party. The appearance of Dobrodomov and People's Control was driven by exactly that desire and is directly managed by Kovalchuk," says a BPP deputy on condition of anonymity.

There is no vigorous pre-election activity in western Ukraine so far, but Opora observers have already recorded several violations in the region. This concerns the already "traditional" vote-buying, albeit in the form of charity.

"Regarding administrative resources, I would dare say they will be used less than before," Neberikut adds.

Another interesting fact is that many observers of the local elections expect "the use of semi-military groups, so-called sporty young men for provocations."

"The elections in Chernihiv well demonstrated this 'trend.' It is good that it did not come to conflicts there, however, this does not guarantee their impossibility in other districts. In Lviv region there are several active civil organizations that may not be tied to political forces, but they can be used by certain politicians for their purposes," the Opora analyst said.

Dnipropetrovsk

Dnipropetrovsk can be considered an interesting 'electoral' region, despite the political players. Experts predict a tough struggle between the Opposition Bloc and UKROP in both the city and the region.

A month before the race, Dnipropetrovsk is simply sown with billboards and advertising. Among them are incumbent people's deputy, leader of UKROP Borys Filatov, a deputy from the Opposition Bloc, former Azarov government vice prime minister Oleksandr Vilkul, deputy mayor and one of the leaders of Revival Anatoliy Krupskiy, former city council deputy, head of the public organization Hromadska Syla Zahid Krasnov.

The oligarch close to UKROP and former Dnipropetrovsk governor Ihor Kolomoyskyi has long been at odds in the region with former 'regionals' led by Oleksandr Vilkul. Observers believe the main confrontation in the elections may unfold between UKROP and the Opposition Bloc.

photo of Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration

At the same time, some observers believe that the central authorities are ready to compromise with the ex-'regionals' in order to sideline Kolomoyskyi. "The Presidential Administration surrendered Dnipropetrovsk region to the Vilkuls," said Opora network coordinator in Dnipropetrovsk region Serhiy Fedko.

According to him, there is currently a risk of ex-'regionals' using administrative resources with the tacit consent of the Presidential Office. Local experts consider the mysterious transfer of the Dnipropetrovsk Territorial Election Commission from the city council to the regional one, which is now the subject of court disputes, an example of such favoritism. Experts predict that among nationwide parties, BPP and Batkivshchyna will pass the threshold, although neither party is yet running a particularly active campaign.

At the same time, the election results in Dnipropetrovsk could be significantly influenced by Hromadska Syla of the well-known local figure Zahid Krasnov. In addition, the Revival party (also considered a Kolomoyskyi project) is expected to pick up the necessary percentages, although the party's positions in Dnipropetrovsk region cannot be called stable. In Kryvyi Rih, the second most populous city in the region, experts also predict the main struggle between the Opposition Bloc and UKROP. Observers believe that in Kryvyi Rih the ex-'regionals' positions are stronger than in Dnipropetrovsk.

According to Serhiy Fedko, in Kryvyi Rih enterprise-level campaigning is actively mobilizing for Opposition Bloc candidate Kostiantyn Pavlov. The observer also notes active use of media resources in favor of the 'opposition' candidate.

Odesa

Although separatist plans could not be realized in Odesa, parties ideologically close to the former Party of Regions still have strong positions here.

"Odesa region is the electorate of the Party of Regions, and therefore all those connected with that political force still have high support here. For example, the Opposition Bloc has chances to be among the top two leaders alongside BPP. At the same time, the communists or, for instance, Strong Ukraine, could have shown high results if they participated," said Opora coordinator for Odesa and the region Anatoliy Boyko.

Pointing to BPP's good showing, the expert noted that this is explained more by the fact that this political force is the party of power, and in the region people have always supported whoever is in power.

"Electorally, Poroshenko never had support in the region, so I cannot speak of a fall or disappointment with this party; at the same time they are supported because the region always supported the authorities. However, the lack of economic progress and the overall state of the country have still affected the results. The Opposition Bloc, already popular here, has seen its support grow even more."

Batkivshchyna, Samopomich and Our Land have rather contentious chances. In the latter case, one should consider only the southern part of the region, namely Bessarabia, since this party's campaign is built almost exclusively on ethnic factors, for example, Bulgarian rights. In the north, which has always been more pro-Ukrainian, Our Land lacks such support.

"I would give Batkivshchyna 50 out of 50, the situation is worse for Samopomich, which I would attribute to a complete lack of activity by party representatives before the elections. They are the worst represented in the territorial election commissions; in 34 commissions only two have Samopomich members. For comparison, UDAR of Klitschko has three representatives in each. In media terms, Samopomich also works extremely poorly. I would rather speak of support for Khomutynnik's Revival, which has recently become more popular," commented Anatoliy Boyko, the Opora analyst.

Regarding Odesa itself, the leaders remain the aforementioned BPP and the Opposition Bloc.

Odesa mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov retains his popularity and will obviously remain mayor.

His party with the unusual name Trust in Deeds would have had decent chances, if not for one caveat... The party was bought a year ago; before that it bore the name Peasant Party, and at the very beginning — Communist Party (of the working people), and that communist past prevents the retuned party from participating in the elections.

On Wednesday BPP is to present its mayoral candidate. According to information INSIDER confirmed in the Presidential Administration, it will be Sasha Borovyk, advisor to Mikheil Saakashvili. As is known, they did not persuade the ODA head himself to head the BPP list to the regional council, although his name alone would add 6% to the party's rating.

According to an Opora representative in Odesa, Saakashvili retains his popularity in the region and the city. During this time the former Georgian president has only increased his electoral support and, in the opinion of Odesa residents, proved himself a competent leader. However, experts add that Saakashvili's team should not be overrated in their recognition.

"I do not think that the Georgian team, if politicians from Georgia created a party, would find great support. It does not matter here whether it is Saakashvili's team or Georgian reformers. In local elections, given the short campaign, the only thing that matters is politicians' recognition and their deeds," says an activist.

Serhiy Kivalov's political project could compete with Batkivshchyna; they have a prospect of passing the threshold, but they do not claim more than that.

Samopomich's situation is better than in the region, but this is due to the transfer of votes from the People's Front. "Again, the communists and Strong Ukraine would have had great support if they had participated," added the Opora coordinator.

As for violations and falsifications that are already observed or expected in the region, the primary concern is the use of administrative resources. "Further, the usual vote-buying, both with money and food," Anatoliy Boyko said.

Many violations are expected at the vote-counting stage. Observers link this to the complex system written into the new law. "And here it is not only about the authorities; I think many will take advantage of it," the Opora coordinator concluded.

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