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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Today is budget day in Parliament.
A traditional holiday for populists and fighters for funding for everyone-everyone-everyone was reflected in a record number of amendments in the last two decades of the budget process.
They submitted 5236 items, for which accounting would require almost two full budgets - 13,5 trillion hryvnias.
But among the flow of deputies’ speeches I want to draw your attention to a short but very profound speech by the head of the Accounting Chamber, Olga Pishchanska, who reported from the podium on the results of the Accounting Chamber’s analysis of the budget draft submitted by the Ministry of Finance for 2027 year.
This speech actually gives an understanding of the budget’s reality and highlights its main problems.
Among the key remarks are dependence on international assistance, dubious sources of revenue, risks of underfunding defense, and violations of budget legislation.
They planned to rely on international assistance in the amount of 4,3 trillion hryvnias — more than half of all the budget’s financial resources. At the same time, creditors had not yet been identified for more than 1,5 trillion hryvnias of external borrowings.
The risk was quite concrete: in the nine months of 2026 year, the plan for external borrowings to the general fund was fulfilled only by 37,7%. So where to draw resources in the future — no one understands.
The second issue is the topic of tax changes, the revenues from which are already being counted in the 2027 year budget, even though the laws and provisions themselves have not yet been adopted.
More than 105 billion hryvnias of revenues depended on changes in taxation, some of which at that time had not been adopted or had not come into force.
Separately, the Accounting Chamber drew attention to the risk of almost 65 billion hryvnias of customs payments not being received, which were envisaged for the security and defense sector reserve.
At the same time, the budget draft did not set out specific measures to ensure these receipts.
In conditions of a contracting economy and falling purchasing power, import taxation yields fewer and fewer payments. But the Ministry of Finance prefers not to notice this.
The third risk is the expansion of the war and inflation in 2027 year.
They planned to allocate almost 4,9 trillion hryvnias to defense and security — about two thirds of the budget.
However, in the event of intensified hostilities or if inflation and exchange rate indicators exceed forecasts, there was a risk that these funds would be insufficient even taking into account the provided reserve.
Fourth. Uncertainty about money for local budgets.
The draft did not specify the distribution among local budgets of 275,2 billion hryvnias of subventions — almost 80% of all transfers. This complicated expenditure planning at the local level and, according to the Accounting Chamber, contradicted the requirements of the Budget Code.
In addition, the draft envisaged suspending certain provisions of current legislation, which contradicted the requirements of the Verkhovna Rada’s Rules of Procedure.
The Accounting Chamber’s conclusion is unambiguous: the budget draft needs revision.
When a significant part of funding depends on yet-undefined creditors, revenues on unadopted tax changes, and defense spending on forecasts that may not come true, this creates risks for budget execution.
And Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko from the podium effectively capitulated on the issue of dependence on partners’ funds.
“The main task now is for the budget to be financed by international partners. There are few of our own taxpayers due to constant shelling, so we rely on partners who really want to help us in 2027 year.”
We hope that the support will come.
Without partners’ funds we can put any numbers in the budget, but if they are not there, then none of the planned items will be funded.
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