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🌐 November without decorations: voting day. Part 2 of 3
The first question we ask ourselves today: what will happen to Iran after 3 November. Second: what will then happen to oil. Third: how will logistics behave, which is already operating with disruptions, both for oil and for food.
Facts. 8 October Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the elections. According to AP, allies in the Middle East were warned to prepare for a possible resumption of strikes after the elections. The aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt and amphibious ships, about 9 thousand troops, were sent to the Gulf. 1 November Trump said that one or two Iranian nuclear sites remain and they could be struck very quickly. According to Axios, during a tense conversation Trump and Netanyahu differed on timing: Netanyahu wants strikes immediately after the elections, Trump seeks to give diplomacy more time. A senior Iranian official reportedly said there would be no negotiations or opening of the Strait of Hormuz until the US accepts Tehran's demands.
Separately, about Tucker Carlson's statement published on 2 November. He claims the administration could consider a tactical nuclear strike on the underground Pickaxe Mountain facility within days, and a decision might be made by 7 November. He does not name a source, the White House has not confirmed the claim; on 16 October Trump explicitly ruled out using nuclear weapons against Iran on Newsmax, and Rubio said there is no final decision to resume strikes. We treat this as an unverified claim. But markets react not to truth but to probability, and even a rumor of such a scenario changes the price of oil.
Now logistics. About one fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Closure of the strait, or even a prolonged risk that increases insurance premiums, hits tanker freight, fertilizers, and food that depends on cheap fuel. Oil that fell by 7 percent on hopes for diplomacy can just as quickly regain those 7 percent.
And two more stress lines. Domestic political protests in Europe, France's debt, increasingly compared to Greece's 2009 year, and a possible escalation along the Russia–NATO line. Each of these is manageable individually. Together they create an environment in which a random spark costs more than in calmer times.
Part 3: AI, liquidity, and what we are watching next.
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